摘要
随着传统增长引擎对世界经济拉动作用的减弱,跨境电子商务以高速增长态势成为我国外贸重要的增长点,成为新时期促进我国外贸经济增长的重要因素。鉴于跨境电商政策法规与跨境电商贸易发展关系密切,探究跨境电商新政策法规影响与传播机理对跨境电商市场健康稳定发展意义重大。以跨境电商新政策法规出台为信息传播源,基于典型SIR疾病传播和种群竞争模型,把谣言传播模型概念延伸到跨境电商交易领域,建立跨境电商贸易微分方程模型,对模型平衡性与稳定性做定量分析与仿真实验,探讨新政策法规出台对跨境电商交易过程的影响和作用发现,新政策法规对跨境市场的政策吸引力是促进一般贸易市场向跨境市场有效过渡的第一要素,但如果扶持力度不够则很可能导致跨境灰色市场的过度繁荣。因此,为充分发挥政策法规积极作用,有效促进跨境电商贸易健康有序发展,必须对新政策法规的制定、试点、效果评估与测定、完善优化与发布出台制订科学合理的计划,并在不同阶段合理控制新政策法规吸引力度、监管力度、扶持力度,做到"对症下药",规避不利于政府监管的市场引领阶段和不利于市场发展的政府干预阶段,努力从政策起步阶段直接过渡到政策引领阶段,甚至直接发展到平衡健康阶段。
With the traditional growth engine pulling on the world economy weakened,cross-border e-commerce has become an important growth point of China's foreign trade. "The Belt and Road" strategy had a positive effect greatly push the further development of China's cross-border e-commerce,but the "newpolicies" has led to fell down the cross-border ecommerce transaction volume. In order to study the impact of the introduction of new policies and regulations on cross-border ecommerce,weput forward the influence model of the policy and regulations in which the guidance of "general trade goods" and the "cross-border gray goods",referring to the classic prey-predator model and the infectious disease dynamics SIR model.Wealsomade a quantitative analysis of the equilibrium point of the model and its stability. Finally,the simulation experiment is carried out for different stable states,and the impact of policies and regulations is analyzed. The result shows thatthe new policies and regulations on cross-border market attractiveness of the policy is to promote the general trade market to the first element of cross-border market excessive,but the lack of support is likely to lead to excessive prosperity of cross-border gray market,only the reasonable control policies and regulations,supervision and appeal to support efforts to achieve "an antidote against the disease,positive role to develop policies and regulations,so as to effectively promote the healthy and orderly development of cross-border electricity trade.
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期55-66,共12页
China Business and Market
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"新媒介影响下的突发事件不实信息传播机理与动态控制策略研究"(71303157)
上海市一流学科资助基金项目"高原学科管理科学与工程"(S1205YLXK)
沪江基金项目"专项电子商务智库"(D14008)
关键词
跨境电子商务
新政策法规
传播模型
监管模式
一带一路
cross-border e-commerce
policies and regulations
spreading model
supervision mode
The Belt and Road
