摘要
天然气管道一旦发生事故,往往造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,故对天然气管道进行风险评价,以预防事故的发生显得尤为重要。本文分析了聚乙烯管的失效模式,在此基础上对风险因素进行辨识。利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各类风险因素的权重,采用多层次模糊综合评价方法对管道进行综合风险评价。并提出弱化失效可能性,强化失效后果的观点。评价结果表明,此方法可以将定性评价转化为定量评价,输出定量评价结果,并能清晰显示风险来源,具有较好的适用性。
Once the natural gas pipeline has an accident,it often causes huge economic losses and casualties.Therefore,it is particularly important to carry out risk assessment on the natural gas pipeline to prevent the occurrence of accidents.The failure mode of polyethylene pipe is analyzed,and the risk factors are identified on this basis and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to determine the weight of various risk factors,and multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the comprehensive risk of pipeline in this paper.The viewpoint of weakening the possibility of failure and strengthening the consequences of failure is put forward.The evaluation results show that this method can transform qualitative evaluation into quantitative evaluation,output quantitative evaluation results,and clearly show the source of risk,which has good applicability.
作者
李建锋
钱存华
Li Jianfeng;Qian Cunhua(Wuhu Special Equipment Supervision and Inspection Center, Wuhu 241004;Nanjing Tech University ,Nanjing 210000)
出处
《中国特种设备安全》
2024年第2期66-72,共7页
China Special Equipment Safety
关键词
聚乙烯天然气管道
风险评价
层次分析法
模糊综合评价
Polyethylene natural gas pipeline
Risk evaluation
Analytic hierarchy process
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
