摘要
为预估黄河流域宁夏段不同地区未来气候特征及其变化趋势,利用宁夏区内19个国家气象站观测资料和CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6)模式数据,在检验CMIP6模式对宁夏气温模拟能力的基础上,对不同情景下宁夏引黄灌区、中部干旱带和南部山区未来气温变化进行预估。结果表明:(1)CMIP6大部分模式对黄河流域宁夏段年平均气温模拟能力较好,空间相关系数为0.603~0.930,时间相关系数为0.381~0.782,多模式集合优于单个模式模拟效果。(2)在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5 4种情景下,预计2021—2099年黄河流域宁夏段年平均气温均呈明显增温趋势,增温速率为0.09~0.68℃·(10 a)^(-1)。不同情景下增温速率差异明显,SSP1-2.6情景下呈减小趋势,SSP2-4.5情景下先增后减,SSP3-7.0情景下呈“增大、减小、增大”特征,SSP5-8.5情景下呈增大趋势。(3)预计4种情景下21世纪30年代引黄灌区、中部干旱带和南部山区年平均气温分别达10.91~11.29、9.48~9.87、7.47~7.84℃,21世纪60年代分别达11.46~13.21、10.00~11.75、7.97~9.66℃。
In order to project the future climatic characteristics and their changing tendencies in different areas in Ningxia section of the Yellow River Basin,the performance of the CMIP6 models in simulating the annual mean air temperature in Ningxia are evaluated based on observation data at 19 national meteorological stations and the CMIP6 models data.Then the future air temperature changes in the Yellow River irrigation area,the middle arid area and the southern mountainous area of Ningxia under different scenarios are analyzed.The results are as follows:(1) Most models of the CMIP6 have a good simulation ability to annual mean air temperature in the Ningxia section of the Yellow River Basin,with spatial correlation coefficient of 0.603-0.930 and temporal correlation coefficient of0.381-0.782.Meanwhile,the result of multi-model ensemble simulation is better than that of a single model.(2) Under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,it is predicted that the annual mean air temperature in the Yellow River Basin Ningxia section will present a significant warming trend from 2021 to 2099,with a warming rate between 0.09 and 0.68℃·(10 a)^(-1).The warming rates are obviously different in different scenarios,which shows a decreasing trend under the SSP1-2.6,and firstly increasing and then decreasing trend under the SSP2-4.5,an increasing-decreasing-increasing trend under the SSP3-7.0,and an increasing trend under the SSP5-8.5.(3) It is estimated that the annual mean air temperature in the Yellow River irrigation area,the middle arid area and the southern mountainous area will reach 10.91^(-1)1.29,9.48-9.87,7.47-7.84℃in the 2030s,respectively,and 11.46-13.21,10.00-11.75,7.97-9.66℃in the 2060s under the four scenarios,respectively.
作者
马阳
崔洋
张雯
李欣
MA Yang;CUI Yang;ZHANG Wen;LI Xin(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions,China Meteorological Administration,Yinchuan 750002,China;Ningxia Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Yinchuan 750002,China)
出处
《干旱气象》
2023年第1期43-53,共11页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
宁夏自然科学优秀青年基金项目(2022AAC05065)
宁夏重点研发计划项目(2018BEG03067)
中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室指令性科研项目(CAMP-201906、CAMP-202002)共同资助。
