摘要
为较早地准确预测水稻稻瘟病发生发展的气象等级,利用大气环流和太平洋海温对气象条件影响的滞后性,采用最优相关和空间拓扑分析技术,结合滑动平均和主成分识别法,筛选出对江苏稻区稻瘟病指数影响最显著且稳定独立的大尺度预报因子,分别建立了基于大气环流因子和基于海温因子的稻瘟病气象等级长期预测模型。经历史拟合和试报检验,模型效果理想,能提前一个月预测出水稻稻瘟病发生的气象等级。该模型的预测结果对江苏稻区稻瘟病防治具有重要意义。
In order to predict the degree of meteorological grade of rice blast early and accurately,two long-term prediction models of meteorological grade for rice blast were established based on the atmospheric circulation factors and based on SST factors by the optimal correlation and spatial topological analysis technology and the impact of atmospheric circulation and Pacific SST on meteorological conditions（tread effect）.In addition,the methods of moving average and principal component were used for the forecast factor having stability and independence to the comprehensive index of rice blast.Furthermore,through the historical fitting and forecast testing,the results of the prediction models were satisfactory.The meteorological grade of rice blast could be predicted by the models at least one month in advance.Therefore,the prediction results have a significant guiding meaning for agricultural prevention and control of rice blast in Jiangsu rice area.
作者
徐敏
徐经纬
高苹
吴洪颜
罗晓春
任义方
Xu Min Xu Jingwei Gao Ping Wu Hongyan Luo Xiaochun Ren Yifang(Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210008, China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education （ KLME）, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change （ ILECE）, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters （CIC-FEMD）, Center for Data Assimilation Research and Application （CDARA）, Nanjing University of Information Sciences ＆ Technology （NUIST） , Nanjing 210044, China)
出处
《植物保护》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期36-41,共6页
Plant Protection
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306035)
江苏省气象局科研基金面上项目(KM201504
KM201707)
关键词
水稻稻瘟病
气象等级预测
海温
大气环流指数
rice blast
prediction model of meteorological grade
sea surface temperature
atmospheric circulation index
