摘要
采用历年逐旬降水量距平绝对值累积值、负距平累积值、正距平累积值为指标 ,分别表示旱涝、干旱、洪涝程度 ,以此分别建立旱涝受 (成 )灾面积、干旱受 (成 )灾面积、洪涝受 (成 )灾面积与逐旬降水量距平绝对值累积值、负距平累积值、正距平累积值之间的回归评估模型。然后 ,利用百分位数方法 ,将受 (成 )灾面积分为 5级 ,进行农业气候年景旱涝评价。经历史回代检验和预报检验 ,效果较好。
The yearly accumulating values of absolute precipitation departure, negative departure, positive departure in a period of ten days were adopted as some indexes to show the extents of drought, flood, drought and flood respectively. The regression models between them were established respectively. Then affecting and suffering areas were divided as 5 levels using percentile and yearly agricultural climate status were assessed. The effect is good through history test.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第B03期111-115,共5页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家"九五"重中之重项目"短期气候预测系统的总装与业务化试验研究"课题 (96 90 8 0 6)资助。
关键词
中国
农业气候
年景旱涝评价
物理机制
干旱
洪涝
降水量距平值
Accumulating values of precipitation departure Regression models 5 levels Assessment of annual agricultural climate status
