摘要
文章以经济困难和生活自理困难("双困")老人为研究对象,利用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,运用Markov模型构建老年人失能状态转移概率矩阵,预测未来上海市"双困"老年人口规模和老年照护社会救助费用。预测结果表明,上海市失能老年人数量增速逐渐放缓,但"双困"老人在失能老年人中的比例并未减少,其平均增速高于失能老年人的平均增速。根据预测,若将救助对象的收入条件限制放宽到低保标准的2.5倍,所需照护费用是以低保为救助条件所需费用的3倍。日益增长的"双困"老年人口规模和照护救助费用意味着未来老年照护社会救助需求巨大。文章认为,解决"双困"老人照护需求,需将老年照护社会救助纳入社会救助体系中,构建完整的老年照护社会救助制度。
This paper takes the economic trouble and self-care trouble( 'double-trouble') elders as the object of study.Based on China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS) database and by using Markov model,it builds on elderly disabled state transition matrix and to forecast the scale of the 'double-trouble' elders and the expenditure of elderly-care social assistance.This study shows that the growth of disabled elders is slowing,but the proportion of the 'double-trouble' elders in disabled elders has not fallen at all.Their average growth rate is higher than that of disabled elders.According to above forecasts,the expenditure of elderly-care social assistance for the objects with income under 2.5 times of minimum standard would become 2 times more than the expenditure for the objects with income lower than minimum living level.The scale of the 'double-trouble' elders and the expenditure of elderly-care social assistance are growing meaning enormous demand of elderly-care social assistance.To solve this problem,we should construct a complete system of elderly-care social assistance and included it inthe current social assistance system.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期90-98,127-128,共9页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目"未来十年我国城市老年人口居家养老保障体系研究"(编号:12&ZD212)的阶段性成果
