摘要
从国际上看,老年人失能状态转移规律是老年保障研究领域的重要内容。但在中国,由于缺乏权威的跟踪调查数据,一直未能开展老年人失能状态转移规律的系统研究,学术界和实务部门常常借用其他国家的老年人失能状态转移规律,据以研究中国问题。本研究根据中国城乡老年人口状况跟踪调查的数据,在对老年人失能状态分类的基础上,构建马尔科夫模型,提出表征中国老年人失能状态转移规律的两个重要指标——失能状态转移概率和失能状态转移强度的计算方法,得到2006-2010年两次调查间中国老年人失能状态转移概率和失能状态转移强度,并在Makeham假设下,拟合得到中国老年人失能状态转移强度曲线。最后,作为一个应用,利用老年人失能状态转移强度曲线,预测了中国2011-2015年失能老年人数。
From an international perspective,disability status transition of elderly people is an important topic in the international academia of old age security. But in China,due to the lack of authoritative data,systematic research of disability status transition of Chinese elderly people has not been possible to carry out. Chinese academia and relevant departments often use foreign disability status transition of elderly to research Chinese issues and make policies. Based on the Longitudinal Survey of The Aged Population in Urban / Rural China,this paper firstly classifies disability and builds a Markov model. We then propose two important indicators that characterize disability status transition of Chinese elderly people,disability status transition probability and disability status transition intensities and calculate them based on the 2006- 2010 surveys. Then,we use the Makeham hypothesis to do graduation of the intensities. At last,we make a prediction of disability elderly people in China from 2011 to 2015 using the disability status transition intensities curve.
出处
《社会保障研究》
CSSCI
2013年第6期45-55,共11页
Social Security Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"老年护理保障需求
成本与筹资机制研究"(批准号:71273228)资助
关键词
中国老年人
失能状态
转移概率
转移强度
转移强度曲线
Chinese elderly people
disability status
transition probabilities
transition intensities
transition intensities curve
