摘要
文章运用一种新的估算方法估算了纠正偏差后的中国高龄老人日常生活自理能力完好和失能期望寿命(可称为健康与非健康期望寿命),首次对发展中国家高龄老人分年龄、性别与分生活自理能力的死亡率和健康的多状态转移概率进行分析。结果表明,健康与非健康期望寿命和起点年龄的生活自理能力状态有很大关系。将临终前生活自理能力和卧床不起天数数据相结合,文章还分析了高龄老人临终前痛苦程度在性别和年龄上的差异,并根据中国高龄老人的研究结果讨论评估了在人口老化进程中,老年残障期大扩展、相对减缩与保持均衡的三种理论假说。
This article demonstrates that the disabled life expectancies based on conventional multi-state life table methods are significantly underestimated due to assuming no functional status changes between age x and death.We present a new method to correct the bias and apply it to the longitudinal survey data of about 9 000 oldest old Chinese aged 80-105 collected in 1998 and 2000.In our application the age trajectories of disability (ADL) status-specific death rates and ADL state transition probabilities of the oldest old were firstly investigated in a developing country.We report estimates of bias-corrected disabled and active life expectancies of the Chinese oldest old,and demonstrate patterns of large differentials associated with initial status,gender and advances in ages.Employing combined information on ADL disabilities and length of having been bedridden before dying,we analyze gender and age patterns of the extent of morbidity before dying among the oldest old and their implications for debates concerning the hypothesis about compression of morbidity.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第6期2-13,共12页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
美国国家老龄研究院基金
联合国人口基金(UNFPA)
中国社科基金
自然科学基金资助
国家自然科学基金管理学部重点项目(批准号70533010)资助
