摘要
目的研究中国经不安全采供血感染艾滋病毒（HIV）的发病、死亡自然病程。方法采用双向性队列研究方法，选择河南省上蔡县既往有偿献血员较为集中的7个村庄中明确诊断为HIV感染者／艾滋病患者（HIV／AIDS）或疑似AIDS死亡者，收集其发病、死亡及治疗等信息。观察终点为2008年3月31日。用乘积积限法计算艾滋病潜伏期和生存时间，对结局事件的时点进行调整分析。结果2569例既往有偿献血员HIV感染者，其中疑似AIDS死亡者483例。快速进展者200例（7．8％），长期不进展者337例（13．1％）。AIDS潜伏期为8．5～8．9年，发病率为11．7～12．0例／100人年；HIV生存时间8．8～10．7年，死亡率为6．9～8．3例／100人年；AIDS生存时间为1．2-2．0年，死亡率为34．9-51．5例／100人年。结论通过对结局事件的时点调整，获得相对可靠的既往有偿献血员H1V感染者的AIDS潜伏期、AIDS生存时间和HIV生存时间，分别为8．8年、1．2年和9．8年。
Objective To investigate the natural history of HIV infection caused by contaminated plasma donation among former commercial plasma donors in China. Methods Ambispective cohort study among HIV/AIDS cases and suspected AIDS deaths was conducted from January 1,1995 to March 31,2008 in 7 administrative villages in Shangcai county of Henan province. Information regarding diagnostic criteria, deaths and anti-retrovims treatment was collected. Incubation and survival time were calculated using Kaplan-Meier and life-tables method. Sensitive analysis on the time of outcome was conducted. Results A total number of 2569 cases of HIV infection including 483 suspected AIDS deaths were involved in a cohort. 200 patients with rapid progress （7.8%） and 337 long-term but non-progressive patients （13.1%） were identified. Results from the sensitive analysis showed that the median incubation period from HIV infection to AIDS was between 8.5 and 8.9 years, with incidence as 11.7-12.0 cases/100 person-years and the median survival time for HIV progression to death was from 8.8 to 10.7 years, with the death rate as 6.9-8.3 cases/100 person-years. The median survival time for AIDS patient was from 1.2 to 2.0 years, with death rate as 34.9-51,5 cases/100 person-years. Conclusion According to sensitive analysis, the incubation period for HIV progression to AIDS, the median survival time for HIV progression to death and the median survival time for AIDS patient to death were 8.8 years, 1.2 years and 9.8 years, respectively.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期633-637,共5页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
基金
国家“十五”科技攻关课题（2004BA719A02）
关键词
艾滋病
既往有偿献血人员
自然病程
队列研究
HIV/AIDS
Former commercial plasma donors
Natural history
Cohort study
