摘要
全球气候变化及其造成的极端气候事件对人类社会的影响已经引起广泛关注,少年儿童及老年人口是脆弱人群的重要组成部分,分析其空间暴露性与变化对开展气候灾害风险评估具有重要的意义。本文基于1982、1990、2000和2010年我国人口统计数据,编制二级气候变化区划下各县级行政单元老年系数和少儿系数的空间分布图,分析我国不同气候变化分区中老少人口暴露性的空间特征和变化。结果表明:从1982到2010年,我国老年系数总体呈上升趋势,由东南向西北呈阶梯状增加,少儿系数总体呈下降趋势,由东北向西南呈阶梯状减少。Ⅲ1、Ⅱ1、Ⅰ2、Ⅱ2和Ⅰ3区的老年系数较同期其他区划高,Ⅴ2、Ⅲ3、Ⅳ1、Ⅳ2和Ⅲ2区的少儿系数较同期其他区划高。从1982到2010年,Ⅲ1、Ⅰ1、Ⅱ1、Ⅰ2和Ⅲ3区近20年的老年系数增长较多,Ⅲ1、Ⅲ2、Ⅳ2、Ⅲ3和Ⅱ1的少儿系数减少较少。
More and more attention has been paid to the impacts of climate change and its induced extreme climatic events on our society. Children and the Elderly is an important part of vulnerability,analyzing the spatial and temporal change of them is of great important ance part for assessing the climatic hazard risks. Based on the population census data at county level of China in 1982,1990,2000 and 2010,firstly the spatial distribution maps of the coefficient of children and the elderly are made by using GIS,and then their changes are analyzed. The results show that: From 1982 to 2010 the coefficient of the elderly has an increasing trend especially from southeast to northwest,while the coefficient of children presents a decreasing tendency from northeast to southwest. For a specific year,the coefficient of the elderly in regions of Ⅲ1,Ⅱ1,Ⅰ2,Ⅱ2 and Ⅰ3 are higher than the ones in other regions,and the coefficient of children in regions of Ⅴ2,Ⅲ3,Ⅳ1,Ⅳ2 and Ⅲ 2 are higher than other regions. In the past twenty years,the coefficients of the elderly in the regions of Ⅲ1,Ⅰ1,Ⅱ1,Ⅰ2 and Ⅲ3 increase quite greatly than other regions,while the coefficients of children in the regions of Ⅲ1,Ⅲ2,Ⅳ2,Ⅲ3 and Ⅱ1 decrease less than other regions.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第S1期377-380,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划项目(编号:B08008)
国家自然科学青年基金项目(编号:41201547)
关键词
气候变化
区划
暴露性
老年人
少年儿童
climate change
regionalization
exposure
children
the elderly
