摘要
全球气候变暖和城市化带来的气象致灾因子强度、频率以及承灾体暴露性变化,使气象灾害风险管理变得更加复杂,也使其成为各国应对气候变化的当务之急和优先重点。气象灾害灾情的趋势分析可以为气象灾害防御、防灾减灾规划和气候变化适应等提供参考依据。论文从气象灾害损失和发生频次两个维度出发,基于死亡人口和直接经济损失两个表征灾害影响的关键指标,以绝对值和相对值统计了近65 a(1949—2013年)中国气象灾害灾情的变化特征。近65 a我国气象灾害统计结果显示:1累积死亡人口超过155万人,死亡人口和百万人口死亡率呈明显下降趋势,年均死亡人口由20世纪50到60年代的超过10 000人逐步下降到21世纪以来的年均约1 000人;2直接经济损失累积约12万亿元(2013年价格),直接损失绝对值呈上升趋势,年均直接经济损失由20世纪50年代不足1 000亿元上升至21世纪以来的超过3 000亿元,直接损失比率(直接损失占国内生产总值的比例)呈明显下降趋势,损失率由20世纪50~60年代超过15%下降到21世纪以来的1%左右;3近20 a(1994—2013年)气象灾害灾情分析表明,死亡人口和直接经济损失占所有自然灾害的比例多年平均值分别为55%和87%,考虑气象相关的滑坡、泥石流等次生地质灾害影响,该比例分别增至81%和89%,次生灾害对人口死亡的贡献突增;全球灾害数据库(EM-DAT)的统计表明,洪涝、台风、干旱和降水相关的滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害是影响中国的主要气象灾害,且影响呈上升趋势。
Global warming and urbanization change both the intensity and frequency of extreme events and the exposure of meteorological disasters, these changes have made it more complex for the meteorological disaster risk management, which make it a priority for each country to respond to climate change. Meteorological disaster trend analysis is essential for disaster prevention and mitigation planning, and also for climate change adaptation. From two dimensions of meteorological disaster, i.e., disaster losses and frequency, this paper uses two key indicators, i.e., deaths and direct economic losses, both in absolute value and in relative value,to analyze the meteorological disaster trend and variation for the last 65 years(between 1949 and 2013) in China. An analysis of 1949-2013 meteorological disaster data reveals several results. First, more than 1.55 million people died, both the mortality and the death rate(deaths per million people) show a significant decline, annual average deaths decreased gradually from more than 10 thousand people in the 1950 s and the 1960 s to about 1 thousand people since the21 st century. Second, overall economic damages amounting to 12 trillion yuan(adjusted to2013 prices), the absolute direct loss shows a uptrend, annual mean direct loss has increased from less than 100 billion yuan in the 1950 s to more than 300 billion yuan since the 21 st century; while economic losses expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product(GDP) has a downward trend, direct loss rate amounted to over 15% in the 1950 s and then dropped to around 1% since the 21 st century. Finally, over the last two decades(1994-2013), meteorological disasters accounted for 55% of the deaths and 87% of the direct economic losses caused by natural hazards, if weather- related secondary geological disasters, i.e., landslides and debris flows, are concerned, these figure will increase to 81% for deaths and to 89% for economic losses. Floods, storms, droughts and precipitation- induced secondary geological disasters are the major cause for loss of life and economic damage in China, and this effect is on the rise.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第9期1520-1530,共11页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955402)
国家自然科学基金项目(41101506)
教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划(B08008)
关键词
气象灾害
直接经济损失
死亡人口
自然灾害
meteorological disasters
direct economic losses
mortality
natural disasters
