摘要
中国政府施行计划生育政策有效地控制了人口增长,对经济发展做出了积极的贡献。当今人口增长已经出现了新的转折点,在研究开放单独二孩政策对人口数量影响时,建立三种人口结构模型:灰色预测GM(1,1)模型、Logistic人口阻滞增长模型和与生育有关的人口结构预测模型,利用统计年鉴的数据对现有全国人口数据进行拟合,通过城乡人口比和人均GDP等影响因素对模型进行优化,并利用优化的模型对未来人口进行了预测。
The family planning which the Chinese government implementation effectively controlled the excessive growth of population,and it makes a positive contribution on the economic development. Today's population growth has been the big emergence of a new turning point. At the time of the study and solve the influence on open two children policies that change the population of the China,we establish of three demographic models: gray prediction GM( 1,1) model,Logistic population growth models and predictive models related to population structure and fertility. Using the data of Statistical Yearbook,our existing national population data were fitted. Through the influencing factors of the urban and rural population and per capita GDP,we make the model for further optimization. And use the optimized model to predict the future population.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第S2期122-124,共3页
China Population,Resources and Environment
关键词
单独二胎政策
人口预测
LOGISTIC模型
灰色预测
the'couples to have a second baby if either is an only child'policy
population forecast
Logistic model
gray prediction
