摘要
针对美国对华经济竞争呈现出的主动性、螺旋上升态势和风险偏好,本文提出了一个将对外经济竞争与经济秩序改革联动的解释框架,即霸权国借由与崛起国的经济竞争来驱动改革共识,进而重塑更有利于自身的国内和国际经济秩序。通过对2009~2023年美国对华制造业竞争进行溯因分析可以发现,在自由主义原则下,美国难以实现制造业的复兴,因此转而以对华竞争为名强化其在产业政策方面的国内外联盟,以加速并扩大制度调整,撬动传统的供应链转型,继而推动以再工业化为核心的国内经济结构改革和以美国工业体系为核心的国际经济秩序改革。换言之,对华竞争是美国应对自由主义经济秩序失衡的阶段性抓手,它将随着秩序改革实效的变化而改变。美国对华战略竞争的动力和演化机制受到中美权力转移与自由国际秩序转型的共同作用,但是以对华战略竞争为名推动自由国际秩序改革,并不具有可持续性。美国对华竞争的程度、范围和复杂性,已超出了美国过往的经验。在此背景下美国利用对华竞争驱动秩序改革,很可能会因非意图后果或突发性危机而导致最终结果背离其初衷。
This paper provides a theoretical framework that explains the initiative,tension,and risk preference of the United States in its rivalry with China by linking economic competition with the reform of the economic order.Specifically,it argues that the hegemon uses economic competition with a rising power to promote consensus on reform,thereby reshaping domestic and international economic orders more favorable to its own interests.Through abductive analysis of U.S.-China competition in manufacturing from 2009 to 2023,this paper finds that the struggle of U.S.manufacturing under liberal economic principles has prompted the U.S.to form domestic and foreign alliances in industrial policy in the name of competing with China so that the U.S can accelerate and expand institutional adjustments and transform traditional supply chains.This process helps drive structural reforms in the domestic economy and reshape the international economic order around the American industrial system.In essence,rivalry with China is a phased strategy for repairing imbalances within the liberal economic order,which will be adjusted based on actual effects of these reforms.The dynamics and patterns of U.S.-China rivalry are influenced by both power transition and transformation of the liberal international order.However,relying on rivalry with China cannot guarantee sustainable reform of the international order due to potential intensity,scope,and complexity exceeding what the U.S once experienced.In this context,leveraging competition with China to reshape the international order can lead to unintended consequences or sudden crises and thereby deviate from the original U.S.intention.
出处
《美国研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期59-82,6,7,共26页
The Chinese Journal of American Studies
基金
教育部人文社科青年项目“权力转移中的大国合作演化研究”(项目编号:18YJCGJW011)
广东外语外贸大学校级科研项目“权力转移、时间偏好与合作演化研究”(项目编号:2021RC153)的阶段性研究成果。
