摘要
优化生育政策、应对人口结构变化是支撑中国式现代化的关键策略。虽然家庭生育决策的质量-数量理论为政策优化提供了经济视角,但该理论未能充分考虑社会文化因素和个体心理动机在不同社会环境中的作用。本研究基于2018年的中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,探讨宏观社会观念与微观个体期望在生育决策中的交互影响。研究发现,传宗接代观念与生育子女数量偏好呈正向关联,但对子女成就的高期望则削弱此联系。特别是在对个人成就期望较高、生活幸福感较强的中青年群体中,传宗接代观念与子女成就期望呈替代关系。这反映出现代化进程中价值观的转变,个人成就和幸福感成为生育决策中的重要考量因素。因此,生育政策需综合经济、社会、文化和心理因素,以精准理解生育行为,优化人口结构。
Optimizing fertility policies and addressing demographic structural changes are key strategies supporting mod⁃ernization in the Chinese context.Although the quality⁃quantity theory of family reproductive decisions provides an economic perspective for policy optimization,it fails to fully consider the role of socio⁃cultural factors and individual psychological motiva⁃tions across different social contexts.This study,based on data from the 2018 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),explores the interactive effects of macro⁃social beliefs and micro⁃individual expectations on reproductive decisions.The findings indicate a positive correlation between the concept of ancestral continuity and the preference for the number of children.However,the correlation is weakened by high expectations for children’s achievements.Particularly among young and middle⁃aged adults with higher personal achievement expectations and greater life satisfaction,there is a substitution relationship between the con⁃cept of continuing the family line and expectations for children’s achievements.This reflects a shift in values during the mod⁃ernization process,where personal achievements and happiness become significant considerations in reproductive decisions.Therefore,fertility policies should integrate economic,social,cultural,and psychological factors to accurately understand re⁃productive behavior and optimize population structure.
作者
张煜婕
张金凤
ZHANG Yujie;ZHANG Jinfeng(School of Public Policy and Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)
出处
《岳麓公共治理》
2024年第3期98-111,共14页
YUELU PUBLIC GOVERNANCE
基金
2023年度重庆市社会科学规划博士和培育项目:积极老龄化视角下老年抑郁群体社会融合有效性评价及提升路径研究(2023BS080)。
关键词
中青年
生育子女数量偏好
传宗接代观念
子女成就期望
中国式现代化
young and middle⁃aged adults
preferences for the number of children
concept of ancestral continuity
ex⁃pectations of children’s achievements
Chinese⁃style modernization
