摘要
在地下咸水层封存过程中,CO_(2)的溶解反应将会影响其封存容量和稳定性,并对周围环境和生态系统造成不利影响。为合理分析CO_(2)在地下咸水层中的溶解性能,基于马尔科夫理论对灰色GM(1,1)模型进行优化,构建CO_(2)溶解性能灰色预测模型。通过预测单因素影响下CO_(2)在地下咸水层中的溶解性能,科学分析模型预测值与实测值的平均相对误差。结果表明:通过压强、温度及矿化度分析不同影响因素对CO_(2)在水中溶解性能,得出CO_(2)溶解性能灰色马尔科夫优化预测模型预测值与实测值的平均相对误差分别为0.37%、17.73%、0.21%;与灰色GM(1,1)模型相比,预测结果的平均相对误差分别降低了0.35、1.56、3.41百分点,CO_(2)溶解性能灰色预测模型预测精度更高。研究成果为CO_(2)在地下咸水层中的溶解封存提供数据支撑。
During sequestration process in subsurface saline aquifers,CO_(2) dissolution reaction affects its storage ca⁃pacity and stability,causing adverse impact on surrounding environment and ecosystem.To rationally analyze disso⁃lution behavior of CO_(2) in subsurface saline aquifers,grey model GM(1,1)is optimized based on Markov theory to build grey forecast model for CO_(2) solubility.The model forecasts single-factor impacted CO_(2) solubility in subsurface saline aquifers,scientifically analyzing average relative error between predicted and measured values.The results show that,analysis of different impact factors of pressure,temperature and salinity obtains average relative errors between predicted values of grey Markov forecast model and measured values of CO_(2) solubility are 0.37%,17.73%and 0.21%,respectively.Compared to grey GM(1,1)model,grey forecast model gets forecast results with average relative error reduced by 0.35,1.56 and 3.41 percentage points,respectively,demonstrating higher accuracy of CO_(2) solubility.The research provides data support for CO_(2) dissolution storage in subsurface saline aquifers.
作者
董利飞
钟品志
张旗
董文卓
余波
韦海宇
杨超
DONG Lifei;ZHONG Pinzhi;ZHANG Qi;DONG Wenzhuo;YU Bo;WEI Haiyu;YANG Chao(School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404120,China;Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area(China Three Gorges University),Ministry of Education,Yichang 443002,China)
出处
《大庆石油地质与开发》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第1期95-101,共7页
Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing
基金
重庆市基础研究与前沿探索项目“基于微观接触力学的页岩气藏远场分支裂缝自支撑机理及导流能力评价”(2022NSCQ-MSX3909)
重庆市教委科学技术研究项目“页岩气藏次级裂缝自支撑作用及其影响因素研究”(KJZD-K202201204)
三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金项目“基于压力补偿的库区欠压水层CO_(2)埋存潜力研究”(2022KDZ04)
重庆市三峡水库岸坡与工程结构灾变防控工程技术研究中心2022―2023年度开放基金项目“三峡库区万州地区CO_(2)地质埋存潜力评估及计算分析”(SXAPGC23ZDI04)
重庆市三峡水库岸坡与工程结构灾变防控工程技术研究中心2022―2023年度开放基金项目“咸水层CO_(2)溶解度预测模型”(SXAPGC23YB10)。
