摘要
介绍灰色GM(1,1)模型建立原理以及模型参数辨识方法,在文献[6]基础上进行模型残差修正,修正后的模型经优度检验,模拟精度由原来的95.34%提高到97.41%。模型外推预测表明,用修正后的模型预测长治市农灌需水量,结果更加贴近实际,可为农业用水及水资源规划提供更为准确的参考。
This paper introduced the principle of gray GM （1,1） modeling and the concerned parameter identification method, and also made model residual revision based on literature [6]. The fit goodness after revision showed that the simulation precision increased from 95.34% to 97.41%. The model extrapolation prediction indicated that the revised model forecasting the Changzhi field irrigation water demand resulted in the fact. So, the model can provide a correct reference for agricultural water demand and water resources plan.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第6期12-14,共3页
Journal of China Hydrology
