摘要
利用自贡市高粱产量资料、生育期资料和相关气象资料,确定了适用于自贡地区的高粱气象灾害指标,建立了高温、干旱、连阴雨强度指数,开展了高粱各关键生育期的主要气象灾害致灾危险性区划。结果表明:高粱拔节至灌浆期干旱SPI指数与高粱气象产量在0.01水平上呈显著正相关,期间出现干旱(SPI≤-0.5)的年份占3/4,且干旱发生偏重(-2.0≤-SPI≤-1.0)的年份占1/2,是自贡地区常年影响高粱产量的主要气象灾害,其致灾危险性自东南向西北递增,致灾危险性高等级区主要分布在荣县北部。高粱灌浆期高温、抽穗扬花期连阴雨强度指数与高粱气象产量呈负相关,但显著性不明显,受发生强度弱、持续时间短、发生概率小等因素限制,高温、连阴雨对高粱产量影响较小。
Based on the data of sorghum yield,growth period and relevant meteorological data in Zigong City,the meteorological dis-aster indexes of sorghum suitable for Zigong area were determined,the intensity indices of high temperature,drought and continuous rain were established,and the disaster risk distribution map of main meteorological disasters in each key growth period of sorghum was con-structed.The results showed that the drought SPI index was positively correlated with sorghum meteorological yield at 0.01 level from jointing to grain filling period.The years with drought(SPI≤-0.5)accounted for 3/4,and the years with heavy drought(-2.0≤-SPI≤-1.0)accounted for 1/2,which was the main meteorological disaster affecting sorghum yield in Zigong region.The disaster risk increased from southeast to northwest,and the high level areas were mainly distributed in the north of Rongxian County.The intensity index of high temperature at filling stage and continuous rain at heading and flowering stage of sorghum was negative correlated with meteorological yield of sorghum,but the significance was not obvious.Limited by weak intensity,short duration and small probability of occurrence,high temperature and continuous rain had lttle influence on yield of sorghum.
作者
李强
李钰春
李昱锐
朱玉璘
刘云腾
刘秀
罗伟
LI Qiang;LI Yuchun;LI Yurui;ZHU Yulin;LIU Yunteng;LIU Xiu;LUO Wei(Zigong Meteorological Service,Zigong 643000,China;Rongxian County Meteorological Service,Rongxian 643100,China;Fushun County Meteorological Service,Fushun 643200,China)
出处
《高原山地气象研究》
2023年第S01期102-107,共6页
Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research
基金
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(2018-重点-05-11,SCQXKJQN2019034)。
关键词
高粱
气象灾害
分析评估
强度指数
自贡
Sorghum
Meteorological disaster
Analysis and evaluation
Strength index
Zigong
