摘要
尽管中央政府和各省政府均制定了碳达峰目标,但这并不意味着2030年碳达峰是容易的。各省在2030年碳达峰的难度差别较大,山东省是难度较大的省份之一。我们使用山东省2000—2020年的数据,估计山东省的碳排放总量与人均地区生产总值、城镇人口数量、煤炭占一次能源消费比重和能源强度之间的函数关系。利用该函数设定2021—2060年人均收入等变量的六种典型且合理的情景,预测山东省碳排放总量的变化趋势。预测结果显示,在“中增长、高减排”情景下,山东省将在2030年实现碳达峰。为实现在2030年碳达峰,山东省需要在“十四五”期间将非化石能源消费比重由7.4%提高到15%,这需要在现有“十四五”规划的基础上增加54.7万千瓦太阳能装机量以及12.3万千瓦风电装机量,分别需要额外资金402亿元和60亿元,比“十四五”规划投资增加约15%和10%。若要实现山东省制定的在2027年前碳达峰这一目标,则需要更大的减排力度和更多的资金投入,例如通过绿色金融、财政补贴和鼓励企业合作等方式激励减排和清洁能源投资。
Although China’s central government and provincial governments have set carbon peaking targets,this does not mean that carbon peaking in2030is easy.The difficulty of peak carbon dioxide emission in2030varies greatly among provinces,and Shandong province is one of the most difficult provinces.Using the data of Shandong from2000to 2020,we can estimate the functional relationship between Shandong’s total carbon emission and per capita GDP,urban population,the proportion of coal in primary energy,and energy intensity.Using this function and setting six typical and reasonable scenarios of variables such as per capita income from2021to 2060,the change trend of total carbon emission in Shandong can be predicted.The forecast results show that,under the“medium growth,high emission reduction”scenario,Shandong will reach its peak emission in 2030.In order to achieve the peak emission in 2030,Shandong needs to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption from7.4%to 15%during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period,which requires an increase of 547,000kilowatts on the basis of the existing“14th Five-Year Plan”.The installed capacity of solar energy and the installed capacity of 123,000kilowatts of wind power;correspondingly,they require additional funds of 40.2billion yuan and 6billion yuan,respectively,about 15%and 10%more than the“14th Five-Year Plan”investment.To achieve the goal of peak emission by 2027 set by Shandong,greater emission reduction efforts and more capital investment are required.So it can be seen that although carbon peaking in 2030is feasible,it is not a matter of course.Achieving this goal is challenging and requires very strong policy guidance.Shandong can incentivize emission reductions and clean energy investments through green finance,financial subsidies,and encouraging corporate cooperation.
作者
王俊杰
裘以峰
WANG Junjie;QIU Yifeng(School of Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang330013,China;Institute of Economics and Society,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang330013,China)
出处
《齐鲁学刊》
CSSCI
2023年第3期130-143,共14页
Qilu Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于生态足迹方法的自然资源资产负债表编制研究”(72063010)
国家自然科学基金项目“光伏并网发电系统中的短期功率预测与储能容量优化配置研究”(71861012)
江西省教育厅科技项目“中国国家自然资源资产负债表编制与应用”(GJJ210517)
国家社会科学基金重点项目“制造业碳达峰碳中和的实现机制与政策保障”(22AZD095)。
关键词
碳达峰
山东省
能源结构
可行性分析
carbon peaking
Shandong province
energy structure
feasibility analysis
