摘要
运用文献资料法、数理统计法、比较研究法对第1-18届世锦赛男子4×100米接力成绩发展变化进行分析,利用灰色模型对第19-21届世锦赛男子4×100米接力第一名成绩与19-21届世锦赛我国男子4×100米接力预赛成绩进行预测,并对我国男子4×100米成绩与世界男子4×100米成绩进行比较分析,以期为我国备战未来三届世锦赛男子4×100米提供一定的理论参考。结果表明:(1)对世锦赛男子4×100米决赛成绩分析发现,世界男子顶尖平均水平呈现缓慢提高的趋势,而第8届是成绩转折点。(2)第19届、第20届、第21届世锦赛男子4×100米第一名预测成绩分别为37.2627s、37.3621s、37.3985s,三届的成绩差距不大。(3)第19届、第20届、第21届世锦赛我国男子4×100米预赛预测成绩分别为38.2261s、38.5670s、38.6747s,成绩呈现缓慢下降的趋势。(4)利用多项式拟合对世锦赛男子4×100米接力决赛第一名与我国预赛成绩分析发现,在竞技体育中运动员表现存在一定偶然性的前提下,中国队在田径世锦赛4×100米男子接力赛中,竞技水平呈现上升趋势,与世界的水平差距呈逐年减小趋势。
The development of men’s 4×100 m relay race performance in the 1 st-18 th World Championships was analyzed by using literature review, mathematical statistics and comparative research methods. The first place winners’ performance of men’s 4×100 m relay in the 19 th-21 st World Championships and Chinese team’s preliminaries results in the 19-21 st World Championships were predicted by using gray model, and the performance results of Chinese team and overseas teams were compared, in order to provide some theoretical reference for China’s preparation for the next three World Championships. The results show that:(a) the analysis and study of the men’s 4×100 m final of the World Championships found that the average level of the world men’s top showed a trend of slow improvement, the 8 th as a turning point in performance, the men’s 4×100 m top got a turnaround improvement.(b) The world men’s 4×100 m relay performance showed a stable trend, and our men’s 4×100 m relay performance had a slow decreasing trend.(b) The predicted results of the men’s 4×100 m first place winners in the 19 th, 20 th and 21 st World Championships are 37.2627 s, 37.3621 s and 37.3985 s respectively, and the difference between the three results is not big.(c) The predicted scores of China’s men’s 4×100 m preliminaries in the 19 th, 20 th and 21 st World Championships were 38.2261 s, 38.5670 s and 38.6747 s respectively, with a slowly decreasing trend of performance.(d) The analysis of the first place of the men’s 4×100 m relay final at the World Championships and China’s preliminaries using polynomial fitting found that, under the premise of allowing a certain degree of chance in athletes’ performance in sports competition, China’s competition level in the men’s 4×100 m relay at the World Athletics Championships showed an upward trend and its gap with the world’s outstanding level has been decreasing year by year.
作者
宣澍
金禹含
苏子涵
Xuan Shu;Jin Yuhan;Su Zihan(School of Physical Education,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;不详)
出处
《体育科技文献通报》
2022年第12期7-10,96,共5页
Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology
关键词
世锦赛
男子4×100米
灰色预测
奖牌递补
World Championships
men’s 4×100m
gray prediction
fill in medal vacancy
