摘要
研究目的:探究中国耕地“非粮化”时空演化特征及影响因素,以期为中国耕地资源保护和粮食安全保障提供参考。研究方法:GIS空间分析、空间计量模型。研究结果:(1)2004—2018年,中国整体的“非粮化”水平呈波动变化,2016年后“非粮化”最为显著;“非粮化”类型逐渐由蔬菜、油料、棉花等多类型向蔬菜瓜果转变。(2)“非粮化”在空间上大致表现出由东北向西南逐步严重的态势,类型多为蔬菜和油料作物,又以蔬菜为主导。(3)各影响因素中,人工成本和种粮比较收益在后期对非粮种植有显著负向影响;劳动力非农就业促进“非粮化”现象发生;机械动力水平在前期对“非粮化”具有显著负向影响,后期表现为正面作用;良好的政策环境对“非粮化”具有抑制作用。研究结论:为应对耕地“非粮化”现象,应继续保障粮食种植收益、完善农业生产设施与服务市场、健全法律政策与制度,以稳定粮食生产。
The purpose of this paper is to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics and the influencing factors of“non-grain”of cultivated land in China,to provide the references for the protection of farmland and food security.The research methods included GIS spatial analysis and spatial measurement models.The results show that:1)from 2004 to 2018,the overall“non-grain”level in China showed a fluctuating characteristic,and it increased significantly after 2016;the“non-grain”type gradually changed from vegetables,oil-bearing and cotton to vegetables and fruits.2)“Non-grain”shows a gradually serious situation from northeast to southwest in space.The types are mostly vegetables and oil crops,and vegetables are the dominant.3)Among the various influencing factors,labor costs and the comparative benefits of growing grain have a significant negative impact on“non-grain”planting in the later stage;off-farm employment of labor will promote the“non-grain”;the mechanical power has a significant negative impact on“non-grain”in the early stage,and the later shows a positive effect;a good policy environment has an inhibitory effect on“non-grain”.In conclusion,it is necessary to continue to ensure the benefits of grain planting,improve agricultural production facilities and service markets,and improve laws,policies and systems to stabilize grain production.
作者
孟菲
谭永忠
陈航
熊雯颖
MENG Fei;TAN Yongzhong;CHEN Hang;XIONG Wenying(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期97-106,共10页
China Land Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42071269)
教育部人文社科基金项目(19YJA630065)
国家社会科学基金项目(19FGLB054)
浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目(21WZQH12YB)。
关键词
土地利用
“非粮化”
时空格局
空间计量模型
种植结构
land use“
non-grain”
spatial-temporal pattern
spatial econometric model
planting structure
