摘要
为了更加直观地评判金属矿山净化库的防洪能力,从防洪安全角度提出了基于云模型的净化库防洪风险综合评价模型。依据《水库大坝安全评价导则》和《水库大坝安全鉴定办法》,选取12个评判指标,构建了防洪风险评价指标体系;通过云发生器得出各评价指标的云数字特征参数;选用博弈论AHP-CRITIC组合赋权法确定各评价指标的权重;利用综合云模型得出综合云数字特征参数,根据最大确定度原则得出净化库防洪风险等级。以湘南某金属矿山净化库为例进行分析,结果表明,该模型的权重确定方法使评价结果更加可靠,可以为净化库的安全管理提供可行性参考。
This paper is aimed to propose a comprehensive evaluation cloud model for the flood control risk of the metal mine purification based on the game theory combined with the weighing method. For the research purpose,we have first of all had to clarify the significance of the engineering role and evaluation of the purification reservoir,and,then,to analyze problems affecting the flood control efficiency of the reservoir water purification in accordance with The guideline for the dam safety evaluation and The dam safety appraisal measures so as to work out the regularities on the flood control/discharge feasibility,the dam stability,the integrated management and the likely destructive risks that may affect the capability of the flood control and flood prevention. From the above said 4 aspects,the paper has chosen 12 assessment indicators and built up a flood control risk assessment index system. And,then,we have also modified the digitalized formula for the cloud model generation so as to solve the single boundary problem of the flood control risk assessment index in accordance with the grading standard to generate"the cloud drop map"of each evaluation index by bringing up the cloud generator. In addition,we have also chosen the game theory in combination with the weighing method to optimize the weight value of each evaluation index and gain the comprehensive weight values to assess the flood control risk capability of the reservoir water purification based on the application of AHP-CRITIC objectively and accurately. And,finally,the integrated cloud digital eigenvalues has been proposed from the integrated cloud model with the engineering measurement data and the data provided through the expert scoring experience. Thus,comparing the expert scoring results with the standard "cloud drop map"of the purification library,we have arrived at the purification library flood risk level according to the principle of the maximum certainty. Thus,it can be seen that the comprehensive evaluation cloud model of the flood control risk prevention can help to eliminate reasonably the impact of the main objective factors on the index weight,and purify the reservoir flood risk assessment to get rid of the defects of traditional evaluation weighting methods scientifically by overcoming the ambiguity of the traditional evaluation indicators and their randomness. In addition,the model has also offered us the feasibility reference for safety management of the mine purification reservoir,so as to improve the flood control risk capability of the water purification as one of its targeted missions.
作者
阳雨平
陈国国
杨田杰
黄丕森
YANG Yu-ping;CHEN Guo-guo;YANG Tian-jie;HUANG Pi-sen(School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期546-553,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
