摘要
考虑到暴雨可能造成灾害的累积效应,本文提出降雨衰减指数的概念,建立相当强度公式,并以此判定暴雨日。从致灾因子出发,以暴雨过程的过程强度和影响范围作为评价指标,建立区域暴雨过程致灾强度的综合评估模型。以长江中下游地区为例,基于上述评估模型,得到该地区暴雨过程序列,继而利用百分位法对暴雨序列进行等级划分,得到该区域暴雨过程的暴雨强度等级。并将上述结果与历史灾情记录对比,结果显示两者在时间和影响范围上吻合较好。
Considering the cumulative effect that heavy rainfall may cause,the concept of rainfall attenuation index was put forward and the relative intensity formula for the rainstorm process was established,so as to judge if it is a storm day.Starting from the disaster factors,the intensity of storm process and the influence region were taken as the evaluation index,and the comprehensive evaluation model of regional rainstorm process was established.Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as an example,based on the above evaluation model,the rainstorm process sequence was obtained,and then the rainstorm intensity grade in this region was evaluated by percentile method.The results were compared with the historical rainstorm process,which demonstrate that the assessment model is consistent with historical disaster records.
作者
梅平
张强
邹旭恺
MEI Ping;ZHANG Qiang;ZOU Xukai(Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Enviroment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation on Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center on Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology(CICAEET),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《气象科学》
北大核心
2021年第1期128-135,共8页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC1502701)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61304089,61503189)
江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20150926)。
关键词
暴雨过程
降雨衰减指数
百分位法
暴雨强度等级
rainstorm process
rainfall attenuation index
percentile method
rainstorm intensity grade
