摘要
基于中国30个省份(因数据缺少,不包括西藏地区和港澳台地区)面板数据,通过构建半参数空间向量自回归模型(SSPVAR),利用时空脉冲响应函数、偏导图探讨了经济增长、能源消耗及外商直接投资的时空传导效应与信息与通讯技术(ICT)非线性的影响作用。研究结果显示:外商直接投资、经济增长及能耗强度受到彼此冲击后的响应较为明显;能耗强度具有自强化效应,空间溢出作用促进了周边省份经济发展,短期内不利于其外资引入,但长期却能提高外资利用。经济发展产生不可持续的自身累积效应,与单位产值能耗走在了“U”的上行区,但却对邻近区域产生了积极的正向溢出。外资长期利好效应凸显,发挥经济发展和能源节约的促进作用;短期内却抑制经济发展,强化能耗度,更无法发挥“示范”效应吸引更大规模的外资流入。ICT具有正向的节能、增产和引流效应,分别以倒V和V型形态推进,但是发展的初级阶段却没有任何影响作用。加速ICT应用,智能化和信息化商业、生产模式转型将有助于更少能耗的经济高质量发展。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China,a semi⁃parametric spatial vector autoregressive model is constructed to explore the spatial⁃temporal transmission effect among economic growth,energy consumption and foreign direct investment and track the nonlinear effect of information and communication technology(ICT)with the help of spatial⁃temporal impulse response function and partial derivation graph.The sresults show as follows.The response of FDI,economic growth and energy intensity to the shock from each other is apparent.Energy intensity shows self⁃strengthening effect,spills over positive effect on economic development in neighbor provinces,and plays a conducive role in foreign capital inflows in the long term.Economic development presents an unsustainable self⁃cumulative effect and positive spatial spillover onto the adjacent regions,but relates to energy intensity on the upward of U curve.Economic development and energy saving effects from FDI dominate in the long run,which is unlike negative effects in the short run that inhibit economic development and energy consumption reduction,and lack of demonstration effects to attract more large⁃scale inflow.ICT plays positive role in energy saving,production increasing and FDI drainage as a result of accumulative development,which carry on in the form of inverted⁃V and V curve respectively.While there is no effect in the primary stage.With the application of ICT,realization of intelligent and information⁃based business and production mode will contribute to the high⁃quality economic development of less energy input.
作者
曾岚婷
叶阿忠
Zeng Lanting;Ye Azhong(Economics and Management Department,Fuqing Branch of Fujian Normal University,Fuqing 350300,Fujian,China;School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,China)
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第11期44-51,共8页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金“半参数全局向量自回归模型的理论研究及其应用”(71571046)。
