摘要
为减少生产者、分销商风险,指导政府及消费者决策,水产品市场价格预测具有重要意义。以2010-2017年上海市七种水产品的批发市场价格为原始数据,构建时间序列模型,对上海市水产品的市场价格进行监测和预测,实证结果显示,上海市水产品周期和季节变化都非常明显,不同品种之间的变化差别也比较大;水产品养殖技术比较成熟,消费者偏好较稳定;Holt-winters模型对不同水产品价格预测存在差异,可对大宗淡水鱼、特种鱼进行三个月的预测,而对虾蟹类只能进行一个月的预测。
In order to reduce the risk of producers and distributors, and guide the government and consumers to make decisions, it is of great significance to predict the market price of aquatic products. Taking the wholesale market prices of seven aquatic products in Shanghai from 2010 to 2017 as the original data, a time series model is constructed to monitor and forecast the market prices of aquatic products in Shanghai. The empirical results show that the cycle and seasonal changes of aquatic products in Shanghai are very obvious, and the changes among different varieties are also quite different. An aquaculture technology of aquatic product is more mature, the consumer preference is more stable. There are differences in the price prediction of different aquatic products by Holt-winters Model, which can be used to predict the bulk freshwater fish and special fish for three months, while shrimp and crab can only be predicted for one month.
作者
张静怡
杨怀宇
ZHANG Jing-yi;YANG Huai-yu(College of Ocean Environment,Ocean University of China,Shandong Qingdao 266003,China)
出处
《中国渔业经济》
2020年第2期91-101,共11页
Chinese Fisheries Economics
基金
现代农业产业技术体系专项资金资助(CARS-46)
上海市农委项目“水产品市场分析及预测预警研究”资助。
