摘要
以广西地区农业碳排放量数据为基础,测算广西1999—2017年的农业碳排放量,基于LMDI模型对广西农业碳排放影响因素进行驱动分解,进而运用灰色模型GM(1.1)对广西2018—2025年的农业碳排放进行了预测。测算结果显示,1999—2017年间广西农业碳排放量呈现较为明显的上升-下降、两阶段、三时期变化特征,测算期的年均增长率为1.06%;预测结果表明,2018—2025年广西农业的碳排放量在1250万t^1320万t间呈增加趋势,并据此提出可采取的措施,以有效促进农业碳减排和低碳农业发展,同时为“十三五”时期广西的农业碳减排目标实现提供决策参考。
Based on the data of agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi,the agricultural carbon emissions of Guangxi in 1999-2017 are calculated.Based on the LMDI model,the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi are decomposed,and then the agricultural carbon emissions of Guangxi in 2018-2025 are predicted by using the grey model GM(1.1).The calculation results show that the agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi during 1999-2017 have obvious characteristics of rising and falling,two-stage and three-stage changes,with an average annual growth rate of 1.06%;the prediction results show that the agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi will increase between 12.5 million T and 13.2 million T in 2018-2025,based on which the measures can be taken to effectively promote the agricultural carbon emission reduction and the development of low-carbon agriculture provides decision-making reference for the realization of the goal of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Guangxi during the 13th Five Year Plan period.
作者
旷爱萍
胡超
Kuang Aiping;Hu Chao(School of Marxism, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin Guangxi 541006, China)
出处
《西南林业大学学报（社会科学）》
CAS
2020年第2期5-13,共9页
Journal of Southwest Forestry University(Social Sciences)
基金
广西文科中心项目(ZX2017004)资助
广西研究生教育创新计划项目(XYCSR2020028)资助。
关键词
农业
碳排放
强度
驱动因素
LMDI模型
趋势预测
agriculture
carbon emission
intensity
driving factors
LMDI model
trend prediction
