摘要
The‘Two Oceans and One Sea’area(West Pacific,Indian Ocean,and South China Sea;15°S–60°N,39°–178°E)is a core strategic area for the‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’project,as well as national defense.With the increasing demand for disaster prevention and mitigation,the importance of 10–30-day extended range prediction,between the conventional short-term(around seven days)and the climate scale(longer than one month),is apparent.However,marine extended range prediction is still a‘blank point’in China,making the early warning of marine disasters almost impossible.Here,the authors introduce a recently launched Chinese national project on a numerical forecasting system for extended range prediction in the‘Two Oceans and One Sea’area based on a regional ultra-high resolution multi-layer coupled model,including the scientific aims,technical scheme,innovation,and expected achievements.The completion of this prediction system is of considerable significance for the economic development and national security of China.
‘两洋一海’区域是‘21世纪海上丝绸之路’的重要空间载体,也是国防安全的核心战略海区。随着社会需求加剧,介于常规短期和气候尺度之间的延伸期(10–30天)预测的重要性逐渐突显。受限于海洋短期预报不含大气海洋快慢过程转化的信息存储机制、大气高频变化制约预报时效、全球气候预报分辨率较低、气陆海多圈层耦合机制理解不足及区域预报无较好初始化等问题,我国海洋延伸期预测工作仍是盲点,导致对一些海洋过程、灾害事件无法做出模拟及预警。本文将介绍基于区域超高分辨率多圈层耦合模型的两洋一海区域延伸期数值预测系统研制情况,包括研究内容,技术方案,创新和预期成果等。
基金
supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC1404105,2017YFC1404100,2017YFC1404101,2017YFC1404102,2017YFC1404103 and 2017YFC1404104)
