摘要
2016年8月底岳阳、株洲北部、衡阳南部、郴州西北部、永州中部降水较常年偏少20%~50%,气象干旱区主要维持在衡阳、永州、郴州地区,部分县市为中度干旱。为缓解旱情,湖南省于9月1日组织实施了一次飞机人工增雨作业。本文从作业计划、作业条件潜力预报和飞机作业预案、作业条件监测预警和作业方案设计、作业跟踪指挥及作业后效果评估5个阶段分析此次飞机作业过程。通过参考EC细网格模式预报产品,提前72 h制定了作业计划,初步确定了飞行区域与飞行时间;分析云模式MM5对云宏微观场的预报,提前24 h制定了作业条件潜力预报和飞机作业预案,进一步确定飞行区域、飞行时间、作业高度和催化方式等;通过FY2E卫星监测反演云产品、探空分析产品和雷达资料,提前3 h制定作业条件监测预警和作业方案设计,确定飞行航线;飞机最终飞行航线与提前制定的方案一致,且作业区普降小到中雨,作业效果较好。
At the end of August 2016,the precipitation of Yueyang,northern Zhuzhou,southern Hengyang,northwest Chenzhou,and central Yongzhou were 20%-50%less than the normal.The meteorological arid areas mainly distributed in Hengyang,Yongzhou and Chenzhou,some counties were moderately dry.An aircraft precipitation enhancement operation was conducted on September 1 to alleviate the drought.In this paper,the aircraft operations were analyzed from 5 stages,including operation planning,potential operation condition forecast and aircraft operation plans,operation condition monitoring and early warning and operation scheme design,operation tracking command and evaluation.By referring to the forecast product of EC fine grid model,the operation plan was developed 72 hours in advance,and the flight area and flight time were preliminarily determined.By referring to cloud model MM5,the potential forecast operation condition and the aircraft operation plans were developed 24 hours in advance,flight areas,flight time,height and catalytic methods were further determined.By referring to FY2E satellite monitoring inversion cloud products,sounding analysis and radar data,operating condition monitoring and operating plan were designed 3 hours in advance,and the flight path was determined.The final flight of the aircraft was consistent with the earlier plan,small to moderate precipitation occurred in the operating area,achieving a good result.
作者
李蔚
丁莉
丁元武
汪玲
李琼
唐林
LI Wei;DING Li;DING Yuan-wu;WANG Ling;LI Qiong;TANG Lin(Hunan Meteorological Observatory,Changsha Hunan 410000;Hunan Weather Modification Office;Nanyang Meteorological Bureau in Henan Province)
出处
《现代农业科技》
2018年第6期194-198,共5页
Modern Agricultural Science and Technology
基金
2016年湖南省气象局科研课题(XQKJ16B020)
湖南省人工影响天气领导小组办公室自立课题"湖南省人工影响天气作业条件潜力预报研究"
关键词
飞机增雨
过程分析
效果
湖南省
夏秋干旱期
aircraft precipitation enhancement
process analysis
effect
Hunan Province
summer and fall drought season
