摘要
2013年夏季,我国南方出现了大范围高温干旱天气。8月1—22日,中国气象局人工影响天气中心利用人影数值模式为南方高温旱区开展云结构预报和人工增雨作业条件分析服务工作。文章简要回顾了2013年8月的旱情和天气过程,重点对2013年8月南方三类云系的云结构预报结果和增雨作业条件进行了分析。8月1~22日,我国南方高温旱区降水过程可分为3种类型。1—4日为台风外围云系降水;5—13日为副热带高压控制下局地对流性降水;14—22日为台风登陆后低压环流云系降水。人影模式对台风外围云系和低压环流云系降水的范围和强度基本预报正确,对云系影响时段和局地对流降水位置的预报略有偏差。利用卫星反演光学厚度、实测雨量和雷达回波检验模式预报结果,大范围云系与实况卫星反演结果比较吻合,而且能够预报出局地对流云团,以及与实况接近的云层性质和垂直结构。综合分析云带、过冷水、云垂直结构、降水等产品可知,台风外围云系和低压环流云系既有暖云降水、也有冷暖混合云降水,冷暖混合云中有最大值为0.3 g·kg^(-1)过冷水,位于-10~0℃,冰晶数浓度较小,可能有较好的冷云催化增雨潜力;副热带高压内部局地对流云团基本为冷暖混合云降水,在初始发展阶段会出现最大值为1 g·kg^(-1)过冷水,冰晶数浓度很少,上升运动大值区位于过冷水层下方,可能有很好的冷云催化增雨潜力。针对南方夏季积层混合云以及对流云的微物理结构和增雨条件的研究以及预报准确率还需加强和提高。
Wide range of high temperature and drought occurred in South China in the summer of 2013.From 1 to 22 August,Weather Modification Center of CMA carried out the work of cloud structure forecast and seeding conditions analysis using weather modification models.This paper briefly reviews drought and weather and analyzes cloud structure forecast and seeding conditions.Three types of cloud system precipitation happened during 1- 22 August in the drought region.Type I is precipitation of typhoon periphery cloud system from 1 to 4 August,Type Ⅱ is precipitation of local convective cloud controlled by subtropical high from 5 to 13 August,and Type Ⅲ is low pressure cloud system from 14 to 22 August after typhoon landing.The precipitation forecasts of weather modification model are basically correct with observations of Types I and Ⅲ,but a bit different from Type Ⅱ.The forecast results are validated by the observations of satellite,radar and precipitation.The distribution of large cloud system coincides with the retrieval result of satellite.The model can forecast the development of local convective cloud.The cloud property and vertical structure are basically consistent with radar observations.The seeding conditions are analyzed through the products of cloud band,supercooled water,vertical structure of cloud,precipitation etc.There is not only warm cloud but also mixed phase cloud of precipitation of Types Ⅰ and Ⅲ.The mixed phase cloud has supercooled water with the maximum of 0.3 g · kg^（-1） and less ice crystals between 0and- 10℃,which is suitable for cold cloud seeding.In the beginning stage there is the supercooled water with maximum value 1 g · kg^（-1）,which is good for cold cloud seeding.A lot of work needs to do about the microphysical and seeding conditions of model forecasts for mixed phase cloud and precipitation in South China.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期1356-1366,共11页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务项目(2011Z005和2014R004)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY20120625)共同资助
关键词
人工影响天气
高温干旱
作业条件
数值预报
weather modification
high temperature and drought
seeding conditions
numerical weather prediction
