基于有限理性的需求模型与承诺交付时间研究被引量：4

Bounded-rationality-based demand and promised delivery time

下载PDF

导出

摘要为研究顾客有限理性对企业交付时间决策的影响,考虑一个有无限能力的企业及其顾客构成的服务系统.假定顾客无法准确估计逗留时间.以顾客选择理论为基础,采用噪声估计方法构造了一个受交付时间与交付可靠性影响的有限理性需求率函数.基于此函数建立了企业利润最大化模型.结果表明,有限理性需求率是顾客有限理性水平的减函数;当顾客的有限理性水平趋于完全理性时,有限理性需求率逼近完全理性需求率.在企业交付成本与交付价格均外生而交付可靠性内生的情况下,最优承诺交付时间存在.数值实验表明,最优承诺交付时间在顾客有限理性水平上是递减的;在较低的顾客有限理性水平上,最优承诺交付时间对有限理性水平变化的反应不灵敏. This paper explores the effect of customer bounded rationality （BR） on delivery time decision. In our service system, the capacity of delivery service is infinite and the customers are incapable of estimating the accurate sojourn time. Based on the theory of customer choice, a function of BR demand rate from the perspec- tive of time competition is constructed through estimating noise sojourn time. The firm＇s profit-maximizing model is formulated based on the function. The results show that the BR demand rate decreases in BR level of customers and approaches the demand rate under perfect rationality when the BR level approaches zero. With exogenous delivery cost and price and endogenous delivery reliability, the optimal promised delivery time （PDT） exists. Numerical experiments also show that the optimal PDT decreases in BR level of customers. When the BR level is low, the optimal PDT is insensitive to change of the level.

作者李海南邱晗光 Li Hainan;Qiu Hanguang(Chongqing Key Laboratory of Electronic Commerce ＆ Supply Chain System,School of Business Planning,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区重庆工商大学商务策划学院

出处《系统工程学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第4期453-460,共8页 Journal of Systems Engineering

基金重庆工商大学博士科研基金资助项目(1055004) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71602014) 重庆市自然科学基金资助项目(cstc2013jcyjA0998) 教育部人文社会科学研究资助项目(15XJC630009).

关键词基于时间的竞争有限理性需求交付时间排队顾客行为 time-based competition bounded rationality demand delivery time queuing customer behavior

分类号 F274 [经济管理—企业管理]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献2

1于淼,宫俊,雒兴刚,朱华波.考虑顾客耐心的呼叫中心人力资源配置模型[J].系统工程学报,2013,28(5):686-693. 被引量：14
2朱华波,宫俊,于淼,唐加福.呼叫中心提示时间与顾客耐心的主从博弈模型[J].系统工程学报,2015,30(5):619-627. 被引量：8

二级参考文献32

1张铁柱,刘志勇,滕春贤,胡运权.基于二层规划的供应链定价决策研究[J].控制与决策,2005,20(9):992-995. 被引量：9
2朱仁祥,朱翼隽,方基奎.重试,反馈M/M/s/k排队的呼叫中心性能分析[J].系统工程学报,2006,21(6):613-620. 被引量：4
3Mandelbaum A, Zeltyn S. Staffing many-server queues with impatient customers: Constraint satisfaction in call centers[J]. Opera- tions Research, 2009, 57(5): 1189-1205.
4Zhang B, Leeuwaarden J H, Zwart B. Staffing call centers with impatient customers: Refinements to many server asymptotes[J]. Operations Research, 2012, 60(2): 461-474.
5Zohar E, Mandelbaum A, Shimkin N. Adaptive behavior of impatient customers in tele-queues: Theory and empirical support[J]. Management Science, 2002, 48(4): 566-583.
6Bitran G R, Ferrer J C, Oliviera P R. Managing customer experiences: Perspectives on the temporal aspects of service encounters[J]. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2008, 10(1): 61-83.
7Aksin O Z, Armony M, Mehrotra V. The modem call-center: A multi-disciplinary perspective on operations management research [J]. Production and Operations Management, 2007, 16(6): 665-688.
8Pazgal A, Radas S. Comparison of customer balking and reneging behavior to queueing theory predictions: An experimental study[J]. Computers & Operations Research, 2008, 35(8): 2537-2548.
9Guo P, Zipkin P. Analysis and comparison of queues with different levels of delay information[J]. Management Science, 2007, 53(6): 962-970.
10Jouini O, Dallery Y, Nait A R. Analysis of the impact of team-based organizations in call center management[J]. Management Science, 2008, 54(2): 400-414.