摘要
高精度的风速及风功率预测可以为电网调度提供发电依据,常规的单一的风速及风功率预测方法已经不能满足当前风电预测需求。首先,对组合预测技术进行了全面诠释;其次,详细描述了几种经典组合预测模型的算法及其优缺点;最后,阐明了将统计学应用到风速及风功率预测中,组合预测技术所体现的潮流趋势,可为组合预测技术的进一步研究提供参考。
High accuracy wind speed and wind power forecasting can provide power generation basis for power grid dispatching. Conventional single wind speed and wind power forecasting method cannot satisfy the current wind power generation forecasting demand. To this end,scholars at home and abroad have carried out a great deal of research and discussion on the combination forecasting technology. Firstly,this paper makes a comprehensive interpretation for combination forecasting technology. Secondly,it describes several classic combination forecasting model algorithm and its advantages and disadvantages in detail. Finally,combination forecasting technology embodied the trend is described when statistics is applied in wind speed and wind power forecasting. The paper provides a reference for the further research of combination forecasting technology.
作者
钟宏宇
王超
张旭光
赵家志
赵立峰
任俊明
ZHONG Hongyu;WANG Chao;ZHANG Xuguang;ZHAO Jiazhi;ZHAO Lifeng;REN Junming(State Grid Power Supply Company of Tonghua,Tonghua 134001,China)
出处
《电器与能效管理技术》
2018年第16期60-66,共7页
Electrical & Energy Management Technology
基金
辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划资助(LJQ2014136)
教育部科学技术研究重大项目资助(212033)
关键词
风电机组
风速
风功率
组合预测
电网调度
弃风率
wind turbine
wind speed
wind power
combined forecasting
power grid scheduling
rate of discarding wind
