摘要
为了定量刻画间歇式电源功率不确定性的统计规律,定义了不确定度概念,建立了关于不确定度与预测超前时间关系的α函数模型体系。首先,用α函数α（t）描述风电场和太阳能电站发电功率的不确定性;其次,将电网的全部α函数合成为多时间常数的α和函数αΣ（t）;第三,将α和函数降阶为单时间系数函数的等值α函数α[t,τ（t）];最后,将单时间系数函数定常,等值α函数被化简为单时间常数的廓线α函数α（t,τ0）。基于幅值和时间常数是两个数字特征,α函数廓线式地刻画了间歇式电源功率不确定性的统计规律。提出和证明的4个数学命题保证了α函数模型体系的严谨性。
To quantitatively depict the statistical forecast uncertainty of intermittent power sources, this paper not only defined the concept of power generation uncertainty, but also proposed a statistical function system to show the relationship between statistical forecast uncertainty and time advance. Firstly, statistical function a（t） was applied to describe the uncertainties of the wind and solar power sources; Secondly, statistical function a of all power sources ware combined into an sum statistical function αΣ（t） with multiple time constants; Thirdly, the sum statistical function cry（t） was then turned into an equivalent statistical function a[t,^（t）] with single-time constant by order-reduction; Lastly, the equivalent statistical function a[t,r（t）] was finally turned into a profile statistical function α（t,τ0） by ascertaining the single time coefficient function. The amplitude and time constant are the two numerical characteristics of statistical functions a, which characterize the statistical forecast uncertainty of intermittent power sources. Four propositions are further put forward and illustrated, which guarantee the rigor of the proposed a statistical function system.
作者
王宗杰
郭志忠
王贵忠
WANG Zongjie;GUO Zhizhong;WANG Guizhong(School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,Heilongjiang Province,China;Harbin Institute of Technology at Zhangjiakou ITRIZ,Zhangjiakou 075400,Hebei Province,China)
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第16期4738-4746,共9页
Proceedings of the CSEE
关键词
间歇式电源
统计规律
数字特征
发电功率
预测误差
α函数
λ函数
intermittent power sources
statistics
numerical characteristic
power generation uncertainty
forecasterror
α function
λ function
