摘要
笔者以2002—2015年A股上市公司为样本,研究了中国非金融企业杠杆率的影响因素。结果发现:(1)金融危机前,国企和非国企杠杆率均呈上升态势;而危机后二者出现分化,国企继续加杠杆,非国企的杠杆率则在经历了骤降后重新上升。(2)微观企业层面变量和宏观经济变量对中国非金融企业杠杆率均存在一定的解释能力,且微观解释变量的解释能力受宏观环境影响。(3)金融危机后政策不确定的增加导致了非国企的杠杆率降低,国企杠杆率增加。(4)实证结果表明,当前国企杠杆率高于拟合水平,非国企则低于其拟合水平。因此,中国非金融企业去杠杆,要牵住国有企业这个牛鼻子,同时减少政策不确定性冲击,深化金融市场改革,推动直接融资的发展。
This paper analyzes what factors driving the firms＇ capital structure from both the micro- and macro-level. Employing a sample of A-share listed non-financial firms＇ level data from 2002 to 2015, this paper finds： （1） Before the financial crisis, both SOEs and non-SOEs＇ leverage level increased, in addition, non-SOEs＇ leverage level is above the of SOEs＇. After the crisis, SOEs keep increasing their leverage level while non-SOEs decrease their leverage, therefore, SOEs＇ leverage level exceeds that of non-SOEs＇ ; （2） Both firm-level factors （including growth opportunity, profitability, size, non-financial tax shield, tangibility, liq- uidity and asset velocity） and maeroeconomic factors （including EPU, VIX index, GDP growth, M2 growth, US real interest rate and inflation） are able to explain the leverage of Chinese non-financial enterprises. Be- sides, firm-level factors interact with macro-level factors to affect the non financial company leverage; （3） Some micro explanatory variables and macro explanatory variables have opposite influences on leverage after the financial crisis. （4） This paper also indicates that the leverage of SOEs is above its optimal level while non-SOEs＇ leverage has yet to be increased.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期23-37,共15页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目"国际大宗商品定价权的金融视角分析与我国的对策研究"(项目编号:12BGJ042)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国资本账户开放进程安排与风险防范研究"(项目编号:14JZD016)
中央财经大学重大科研课题培育项目"中国金融结构"(项目号:14ZZD004)
中央财经大学青年科研创新团队支持计划"国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化"
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
关键词
非金融企业
杠杆率
金融危机
所有权性质
Non-financial corporate Leverage Financial crisis Enterprise ownership
