摘要
本文首次从宏观经济的角度,结合我国资本市场独特的制度环境,提出若干关于资本结构权衡理论、最优融资顺序理论和市场择机假说的新假设,然后运用面板数据分数响应和分位数回归两种新的非线性计量方法进行实证分析并发现:我国上市公司的资本结构呈显著的反经济周期变化,宏观经济上行时,公司的资产负债率下降,而宏观经济衰退时,公司的资产负债率则上升;信贷违约风险与资本结构呈显著的负相关关系;信贷配额及股市表现与资本结构之间关系不大。本文的实证结果表明:宏观经济状况是影响公司资本结构的重要因素;资本结构选择符合最优融资顺序理论;上市公司没有单一的股权融资偏好或债务融资偏好。
This paper uses a novel approach in testing various theories of capital structure, taking into consideration the unique institutional background and corporate governance characteristics inherent in publicly listed firms in China. The paper posits that macroeconomic conditions affect corporate capital structure and derives several testable hypotheses based on the trade-off, pecking order and market timing theories. It then estimates a panel data fractional response model and a panel data quartile regression model. The paper finds that corporate capital structure is counter-cyclical, significantly negatively related to proxies of default risk, but unrelated to credit quota and stock market performance. The empirical results are consistent with the peeking order theory but are against the trade-off theory and market timing hypothesis. The results also suggest that corporate financing choices vary with macroeconomic conditions. During a period of economic boom, firms prefer internal financing over equity and debt. However, during a period of economic downturn, firms generally prefer debt over equity.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第12期52-65,共14页
Economic Research Journal
基金
广东省高校“珠江学者”岗位计划
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-08-0614)
国家自然科学基金(70972081)
广东省自然科学基金(9151063201000050)
广东省高校人文社科重点研究基地创新团队项目(07JDTDXM79005和08JDTDXM79003)的研究资助
关键词
资本结构
宏观经济因素
权衡理论
最优融资顺序理论
市场择机假说
Capital Structure, Macroeconomic Conditions, Trade-off Theory, Pecking Order Theory, Market Timing Hypothesis
