摘要
复杂系统结构组成、运行过程、使用环境复杂,可靠性要求高,评估难度大,且不易获取有效观测数据。发展复杂系统可靠性评估理论,对于控制采购成本、优化维修策略、满足使用需求,具有重要意义。以模糊多状态船用汽轮发电系统为对象,综合模糊状态理论和发生函数算法,实现复杂装备系统模糊多状态可靠性建模,并给出可用度解算、评估、分析方法。研究表明,建模方法对于模糊多状态复杂系统具有普适性,能真实反映系统可靠性特征;克服观测数据不确定性的模糊解算理论,以及回避大自由度微分运算的发生函数解算方法,通用性强、适用范围广、解算效果好,可为复杂系统可靠性建模、评估及其工程决算,提供理论支撑和技术借鉴。
With complex technical system structure,operation process and operating environment,the higher requirement for the reliability of complex technical systems are emphasized,while it has difficult assessment and the effective observing data are hard to acquire.Developing the reliability assessment theory with respect to complex technical systems of great significance to control manufacture costs,optimize maintenance strategy,and meet the needs of use.Take fuzzy multi-state marine boiler turbine generator system as an example,the multi-state system model for reliability with respect to complex technical systems is established,and the availability is calculated and assessed,based on the fuzzy state theory and the generating function(GF)method.Research shows that,the modeling method adopted in this paper has a universal character for fuzzy multi-state complex technical systems,which can really reflect the reliability character.The fuzzy state theory can overcome the difficulty involved by the uncertain observing data,and the GF method can evade the differential operation with large degree of freedom.Both of them have good generality,strong applicability,and higher solving effect,moreover,they can provide theoretical support and technology reference for reliability modeling,reliability assessment,and final engineering account.
出处
《系统工程与电子技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期238-244,共7页
Systems Engineering and Electronics
基金
国家自然科学基金(71401771)资助课题
关键词
模糊多状态
复杂系统
可靠性评估
发生函数
fuzzy multi-state
complex technical system
reliability assessment
generating function(GF)
