摘要
在经济新常态背景下,山东省经济发展的着力点由速度转向结构,必须依靠经济结构转型升级才能持续健康发展。经济结构转型升级需要相应的劳动力结构支撑,重视劳动力结构与经济结构的匹配和协同发展,是经济可持续发展的重要前提。基于山东省第三次经济普查数据、山东省统计年鉴以及第六次人口普查数据,应用灰色关联度方法和支撑度模型综合评价山东省及其17个地级市之间的劳动力结构对经济结构转型升级的支撑能力,可以发现:(1)依据钱纳里的经济发展阶段理论,判定山东省正处于经济结构转型升级的关键时期。(2)劳动力结构的各个因素对经济结构的影响存在着明显的差异性,从山东省经济结构转型升级视角来看,劳动力供给需要增加劳动适龄人口数量、提高劳动参与率、增加城镇人口比重和大专及以上就业人口比重。(3)当前和今后一段时间内,山东省及其17个地级市的劳动力结构能够支撑其经济结构的转型升级,但17个地级市的劳动力结构对经济结构的支撑度差异显著,据此将17个地级市分成三个类型区,并针对每个类型区的特征给出分类指导意见。
Under the background of the new normal of of Shandong province turns from speed to structure, economy, the focus of the economic development and the sustainable and healthy development of economy must rely on the transformation and upgrading of economic structure （TUES）. The TUES requires the corresponding support of labor structure. Therefore, it is an important precondition for economic sustainable development to pay attention to the matching and coordinated development between labor structure and economic structure. Based on the data of the 3rd Economic Census, the Statistical Yearbook and the 6th Population Census in Shandong province, and through applying the grey relationship analysis and the model of supporting degree, a comprehensive evaluation of the supporting ability of labor structure to the TUES in Shandong province and its 17 cities has been made, and it has been found that： （ 1 ） Shandong province is in a critical period of the TUES based on the economic development stage theory of Chenery; （2） there exists obvious difference in the influence of various factors of labor structure on the economic structure. From the perspective of the TUES in Shandong province, labor supply needs to increase the working-age population, improve labor participation rate and increase the proportion of urban population and the proportion of employment population with a junior college degree and above; （3） at present and in a period of time to come, labor structure can support the TUES in Shandong province and its 17 cities. But there is a significant difference of the supporting degree of labor structure to economic structure in the 17 cities. On this basis, the 17 cities are divided into three types to which classified guidance is given according to the features of each type.
出处
《山东师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2017年第5期73-85,共13页
Journal of Shandong Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences)
基金
作者主持的山东省软科学研究项目"山东省劳动力的创新能力对经济转型升级的支撑研究"(2016RKB01302)的阶段性成果
关键词
劳动力结构
经济结构转型升级
灰色关联度分析
支撑度模型
labor structure
transformation and upgrading of economic structure （TUES）
grey relationship analysis
model of supporting degree
