摘要
在世界石油市场上,欧佩克、经合组织(及其下属的国际能源署)的实际作用已明显降低,不少人把目光聚集在4个油气大国(美、中、俄、沙特),即油气G4上。美国是世界一流的油气生产国和消费国,并将成为重要的出口国,而且还拥有影响世界油气市场的巨大软实力。俄罗斯是全球名列前茅的油气生产和消费大国,油气出口市场贸易量居世界首位,并且拥有巨大的资源潜力。沙特是世界头号石油生产和出口国,以及日趋重要的油气消费国,是欧佩克和中东石油政策的"领头羊"。中国是重要的油气生产国、消费国和贸易大国,影响世界油气市场的软实力正快速增长。中国也是油气G4中唯一的油气进口大国,已成为世界各大石油国激烈争夺的出口市场。当然,油气G4自身在发展中都或多或少存在一些问题。以美国页岩革命的成功为拐点,世界油气市场已形成新的格局。总体上供大于需的局面使消费国拥有更大的话语权;生产和消费中心日趋多元化;东北亚—东南亚—南亚弧形带成为油气消费增长最快的地区;金融在国际石油市场上的作用越来越重要,石油交易已成为金融衍生品;合作共赢成为世界石油格局的主流。面对世界油气新格局,中国应加速对油气产业链的全面改革,增强油气实力,从而更好地发挥中国在世界上的影响力;同时要深入研究油气G4,重视油气G4间的合作,全方位利用多种平台,促进引领国际油气合作。
As the roles of the OPEC and OECD（and its subordinate,IEA） have declined considerably in the global oil market,people are beginning to focus their attention on the four major oil and gas producers/con-sumers-the United States,China,Russia and Saudi Arabia（hereinafter called the oil and gas G4）.The United States is one of the largest oil and gas producers and consumers in the world.The country will become an important oil and gas exporter.It also has great ＂soft power＂ that has a dramatic influence on the world ′s oil and gas market.Russia is a major oil and gas producer and consumer.The country is the biggest trader in the oil and gas market and has great resource potential.Saudi Arabia is the world ′ s largest oil producer and exporter and an increasingly important oil and gas consumer.The country is the leader in OPEC ′ s and Middle East′s oil and gas policy making.China is an important oil and gas producer,consumer and trader,with a rapidly growing soft power in the world ′ s oil and gas market.China is also the only major oil and gas importer among the oil and gas G4 and a market that oil exporters are intensely competing for.Of course,all the oil and gas G4 nations have their own problems more or less.With the successful American shale revolu-tion as the inflection point,a new pattern has come into being in the world ′s oil and gas market.The situation where supply overall exceeds demand has enabled consuming countries to have greater voice.Production and consumption centers are increasingly diversified.The Northeast Asia-Southeast Asia-South Asia arc has become the most rapidly growing oil and gas consumption region.The role of finance in the international oil market is increasing and oil trade has become a financial derivative.Cooperation and mutual benefit is the essential aspect of the new pattern of the world ′s oil and gas market.In response to the new situation in the world oil and gas market,China should quicken its pace of reforming its oil and gas industrial chain to enhance its oil and gas-related strength to better exert its influence in the world ′ s oil and gas market.It should also strengthen the study on the oil and gas G4,place a high value on the cooperation between these countries and make full use of various platforms to promote and lead international oil and gas cooperation.
作者
张抗
Zhang Kang(SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration ＆ Production Research Institute,Beijing 100083)
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2016年第12期1-18,共18页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
油气G4油气生产
油气消费
进出口
油气新格局
软实力
oil and gas G4
oil and gas production
oil and gas consumption
import and export
new pattern of the oil and gas market
soft power
