摘要
产能过剩是供应侧改革的热门话题。产能是产量的基础,在二者的相对平衡中产能以一定幅度大于产量是允许的。决定剩余产能的主要因素在于科技水平和经济发展速度的重大变化所造成的供需间的明显失衡,另外也受到人为因素的干扰,它们可使生产的经济边际值发生明显变化。对于中国来说,在改革开放和世界市场日趋成熟的条件下,世界油气供需决定了国内油气生产的经济边际。因而在长期低油价影响下,即使存在大量进口也可使之出现过剩(落后)产能。适当调减落后产能,灵活经营,是保持生产主动权的重要措施。在投资大幅缩减时要把握好目前生产和中长期持续发展的平衡,处理好当前和长远利益的关系。建议动用大量未开发的储量进行新产能建设,要保留战略接替开拓的投资不断线。要保持发展战略的主动性,始终把科技创新放在首位,以积极的作为实现供给侧改革。
Overcapacity has been a topic of interest regarding a supply-side reform.Production capacity is the basis for production.While the relative balance is maintained,it is acceptable that production capacity is greater than output by some extent.The main factor determining the size of spare capacity is a considerable imbalance between supply and demand as a result of significant changes in technological levels and economic growth.Human factor interference also has its influence.They could lead to a considerable change in the eco-nomic marginal value of production.For China,as its reform and door opening policy are increasingly mature,the world′s oil and gas supply and demand picture determines the economic margins of China ′s domestic oil and gas production.For this reason,at a time when oil prices stay low,even if China imports large amounts of oil and gas,overcapacity or outdated capacities still could occur.Appropriately phasing out outdated capaci-ties and operating flexibly are important measures to maintain production initiative.At a time when investment has been slashed,the balance between current production and long and medium-term sustainability of development should be well maintained and the relationship between current and long-term interests should be well managed.The article suggests using large amounts of untapped reserves to build new capacities and main-tain investment in explorations for strategic replacement.The initiative of development strategy should be main-tained,science and technology should be given priority and related parties should act more vigorously to pro-mote the supply-side reform.
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2016年第6期8-14,共7页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
供给侧改革
产能过剩
经济边际
低油价
未开发储量
战略接替
supply-side reform
overcapacity
economic margins
low oil price
untapped reserves
strategic replacement
