摘要
当前建设项目投资迅速增长,为我国国民经济发展提供了良好环境,但投资控制情况不甚理想。主要原因是现行的造价估算方法多采用线性方法,准确性较低,并不能反映出造价和影响因素之间的不确定性和非线性关系。人工生命进化算法具有较高的全范围搜寻能力,通过迭代可以获得较精确的全局优化值,其具有的不确定性、非线性、自组织、自学习、自进化等特征能够有效拟合投资估算复杂系统。结合全生命显著性造价理论和人工生命进化算法理论,建立WLCS-ALA模型,尝试将人工生命算法应用于造价投资预测问题,运用全生命显著性造价模型(WLCS)简化数据处理量,通过计算与拟建项目类似的已完工程的显著性造价历史数据,建立显著性成本项目(CSIs)和显著性因子数据序列,采用人工生命算法(ALA)进行数据优化,寻求优化造价。通过案例实证分析,采用WLCS-ALA模型估算的单位造价精确度远高于传统方法,说明在投资决策领域应用人工生命进化方法会使投资预测更加精确,从而验证了本模型的有效性和准确性。
The rapid growth of investment in the current construction projects provides a good environment for the development of China's national economy,but the investment control is less than desirable.The main reason is that the current cost estimation methods,which are linear with low accuracy,can not reflect the uncertainty and nonlinear relationship between the cost and influence factors.The artificial life algorithm has high full range of search ability,based on which,more precise global optimal values can be obtained through iteration.Its characteristics of uncertainty,nonlinearity,self-organization,self-study,and evolution can effectively fit the complex systems of investment estimation.Combined with the whole life significant cost theory and the theory of artificial life algorithm,the WLCS-ALA model was set up,where the artificial life algorithm was applied to the investment cost prediction problem,and whole life significant cost model(WLCS)was used to simplify data processing.Through the calculation of the historical data of the significant cost of completed projects similar to the proposed project,the data sequence of significant cost items(CSIs),and significant factors(CSF)was established.Artificial life algorithm(ALA)was used to optimize the cost.Through empirical analysis,the accuracy of unit cost estimated by the WLCS-ALA model was much higher than that of the traditional method,proving that the application of artificial life evolution method in the field of investment decision resulted in more accurate investment forecast.The validity and accuracy of this model was verified.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期117-123,共7页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
2011年度教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(11YJAZH121)
