摘要
建设项目投资估算的预测主要是通过收集历史项目资料数据来推测待建项目。既往方法计算结果的准确度都基于其数据采集,而参考项目的数据是否可靠应得到重点关注。因此,基于建设项目的差异性、不确定性提出一种契合加权方法来对投资估算进行预测。通过该方法系统解决预测数据采集差异问题,避免误套、乱套而带来的投资估算可信度问题。跟踪实例工程投资额计算得出传统方法偏差率为14.67%,采用契合加权预测法偏差率为6.8%,新方法使得项目投资估算预测精度大幅度提高。
The prediction of investment in construction projects is mainly based on data collected from historical projects. The accuracy of previous methods is based on data collection, and the reliability of reference data should be focused. Therefore, based on the discrepancy and uncertainty of construction projects, a fit weighting method is proposed to predict investment estimates. This method can solve the problem of discrepancy in prediction data acquisition and avoid the incredibility of investment estimation caused by misalignment and mismatch. The deviation rate of the traditional method is 14.67%, and the deviation rate of the combined weighted prediction method is 6.8%. The new method makes the prediction precision of the project investment increase greatly.
作者
王雍
Wang Yong(Tongling University,Tongling Anhui 244000,China)
出处
《铜陵学院学报》
2018年第5期86-89,共4页
Journal of Tongling University
关键词
建设项目投资估算
契合加权
SPSS多元线性回归分析
construction project investment estimation
fit weighted
SPSS multivariate linear regression analysis
