摘要
从土地利用与经济社会发展两个方面构建常宁市土地利用与经济社会发展耦合协调度评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型,对2009~2014年常宁市土地利用与经济社会发展的耦合协调情况进行定量分析,并采用线性回归预测模型对2015~2020年常宁市土地利用与经济社会发展耦合协调度进行预测。研究结果表明,2009~2013年常宁市土地利用与经济社会发展耦合协调度逐渐提高,2013~2014年,两者耦合协调度开始下降;在不考虑土地利用结构调整优化等因素影响的情况下,预测2015~2020年间,常宁市土地利用系数与经济社会系数之间的绝对差异呈现逐步扩大的趋势,土地利用与经济社会发展耦合协调度持续下降,土地利用与经济社会发展之间的矛盾将进一步增大。
In order to make a quantitative evaluation on the coupling degree between land use and socio-economy development from 2009 to 2014 and predict the coupling degree of 2015-2020 in Changning, the index system was constructed from land use and socio-economy development, and the coupling degree was calculated by use the model of coupling degree and linear regression.. The result showed： the coupling degree between land use and socio-economy development was gradually increased in 2009-2013, and then trended to decline. The absolute difference between the land use coefficient and socio-economy coefficient will gradually expand, the coupling degree will continue to decline and the contradiction between land use and socio-economy development will further increase.
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2016年第5期114-117,共4页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
