摘要
系统的检修备用容量定义为满足系统机组检修而需要设置的容量。为评估风电出力的不确定性以及机组检修需求不确定性对系统检修备用容量评估带来的影响,建立了考虑机组检修需求不确定性和风电场风速相关性的检修备用容量评估模型,同时提出了风电接入后的检修备用容量不足概率这个检修备用容量充裕度指标来评估系统需要设置的检修备用容量。在检修备用容量评估应用方面,提出了包含机组检修需求和风电波动性信息的机组检修概率的概念,对机组的强迫停运率进行修正以用于电力系统随机生产模拟、发电系统、发输电系统充裕度评估以及风险评估等。算例中分析了风电场的相关性和风电装机容量对检修备用容量的影响,得到结论:风电场相关系数越大,系统所需检修备用容量越大;风电装机容量越大,系统所需检修备用容量越小。
Maintenance reserve capacity is defined as a capacity to assure all units＇ maintenance on time.In order to evaluate the impact of uncertainty of unit maintenance demand（UMD） and the stochastic of wind power to maintenance reserve capacity evaluation, this paper establishes a model, which considers UMD uncertainty and the impact of stochastic of wind power, and proposes an index, which is maintenance reserve not enough probability considering wind（MNEPCW）, to evaluate the maintenance reserve. In the aspect of application, this paper proposes the definition of maintenance probability and uses it to modify the forced outage rate, which can be used to conduct probabilistic production simulation,generation system and composite system evaluation, and system risk analysis. Case study uses real data of one province to evaluate the maintenance reserve and analyses the impact of speed cross-correlation and wind farm capacity to maintenance reserve evaluation, which shows that maintenance reserve increases with the cross correlation increases, maintenance reserve decreases with the wind farm capacity increases.
出处
《高压电器》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第6期31-38,共8页
High Voltage Apparatus
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2012AA050201)~~
关键词
风电
相关性
检修需求不确定
检修备用容量
检修概率
wind power
cross-correlation
uncertainty of maintenance demand（UMD）
maintenance reservecapacity
maintenance probability
