摘要
为解决危险品风险分析问题,利用粗糙集理论在处理不确定、不精确问题上的优势,提出基于粗糙集理论的危险品运输风险分析方法。首先,建立决策表,经化简后获得各属性的重要度,识别出影响危险品运输的主要因素与次要因素,以及主次因素所占比例;然后,利用区分函数对决策表进行约简,得出决策表的属性约简;最后,利用决策表的决策规则对原始数据进行推导,得出危险品运输事故的一般规律。结果表明,影响危险品运输事故类型的最重要因素是危险品的类型,所占比重为42.86%,其次是危险品运输的道路状况与危险品运输车辆状况,各占28.57%。在道路状况欠佳且车辆状况良好的前提下,腐蚀品发生危险品事故的严重程度要依次高于毒害品与压缩气体和液化气体。
Aiming to solve the problem of hazmat transportation risk analysis,this paper intends to propose a risk analysis method for hazmat transportation based on rough set theory that is fit for dealing with uncertain and imprecise problems. It is just starting from the above consideration that we have chosen five key factors as the conditional attributes to the exploration of causes accounting for the hazmat transportation accidents taking place in recent years in China.The five factors we have meant to say include hazmat types,road conditions,fatigue driving,vehicle speed and vehicle situation,all of which are closely related to human behaviors,the vehicles used,environmental condition and hazmat itself. Therefore,we have chosen the hazmat accident type as the decision attribute,and it is for this need,we have worked out a decision table as the first step and in turn simplified it to acquire the importance degree of each attribute. And,then,we have confirmed the primary and secondary influential factors of such hazmat to be transported and analyze their proportions in accordance with their respective importance degree. The result of our exploration shows that the type of hazmat should be the most important factor to affect the accident types of hazmat transportation,which constitutes a rate of 42. 86%. The second important factors that we have found are the road condition and the vehicle condition,each accounting for 28. 57%. Thought different types of dangerous goods may have different physical and chemical properties,such properties may still have strong impact on the accident types. Answering the need,we were trying to use the discernibility function to simplify the decision lists for achieving the attribute reduction. And,next,we have adopted the decision rules to deduce the raw data for the underlying cause of the hazmat transportation accidents. And,consequently,we have worked out such hazmat transportation rules,with the uncertainty-identifying rules included. The results of our research show that the severity of corrosives transportation accident proves to be successively higher than those of the toxicant goods,compressed gas,and liquefied gas in case of poor road conditions and good vehicle conditions. At the same time,the hazmat transportation rules we have deduced can be expected to help the decision makers greatly in preventing from the high frequency of hazmat transportation accidents.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期40-43,共4页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
科技部科技人员服务企业计划项目(2009GJA10039)
关键词
安全工程
风险分析
粗糙集理论
属性重要度
属性约简
规则推理
safety engineering
risk analysis
rough set theory
attribute importance
attribute reduction
rulebased reasoning
