摘要
针对当前南疆地区农业经济发展不平衡现象,采用聚类分析、主成分分析、库兹涅茨比率和R/S分析等定量分析方法,研究南疆地区农业经济差异的现状及其影响因素,并预测区域农业经济发展不平衡现象的发展趋势。结果表明,南疆五地州可依据其农业经济结构和发展水平可划分为三种类型,即非农经济主导地区、农业经济稳定发展地区及农业经济落后地区;而造成南疆地区农业经济区域差异的主要因素有二,一是农业人口中的高、低收入人群及其收入比重的差异,二是农业劳动生产率。就南疆五地州的农业经济综合竞争力而言,喀什地区最强,克州最弱,两地区人口规模、基础发展水平和自然地理条件等方面的差异是造成这一现象的主要原因。目前南疆地区区域农业经济差异已超过警戒水平,并对农业经济的持续稳定发展产生不利影响,且这种差异仍将长期存在,区域农业经济差异继续增大的可能性很高。
Applying cluster analysis, principal component analysis, Kuznets ratio analysis, and R/S analysis methods this research examined the current situation and the influencing factors of the unbalanced regional agricultural economic development in Southern Xinjiang and predicted the possible trends of the development of the regional agriculture economy in the future. Results show that the five regions of Southern Xinjiang can be divided into three types on the basis of the agricultural economic structure and development level, including non-agricultural economy dominant region, stable agricultural development region, and the less developed agricultural region. There are two main factors leading to the agricultural economic regional difference in Southern Xinjiang. The first one is the income difference among agricultural population and the gap between high income group and the low income group. The second one is the difference of the agricultural productivity among different regions. As for the comprehensive competitiveness of the agricultural economy of the five regions in Southern Xinjiang, Kashgar region is the strongest one and Kirgiz region is the weakest one. The big difference is eansed by the different development level, population size, and natural and geographical conditions between these two regions. The gap between these two extremes has surpassed the alert level of regional agriculture economy. The negative impacts from the big gap can affect future development of agricultural economy of Southern Xinjiang. By our projection, the difference will continue to exist for a long time with the possibility of getting worse.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期73-79,共7页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家社科基金项目(11XRK004)
塔里木大学校长基金项目(TDSKZD1102)
关键词
农业经济
区域经济
库兹涅茨比率
赫斯特指数
南疆
agricultural economy
regional economy
Kuznets ratio
Hurst index
Southern Xinjiang
