摘要
基于分形理论，利用R／S分析方法，通过计算1990--2008年中国大陆30个省区的碳排放总量和排放强度演变趋势的Hurst指数和分维值D，分析了各地排放总量和排放强度演变趋势的规律性特征，并根据Hurst指数的分布情况，划分了不同的类型区，对不同类型区的总量和强度演变趋势特征进行了比较分析。结果表明，我国大部分省区的排放总量增加的趋势具有较强的持续性，这些省区占到75．86％，但排放强度降低趋势具有较强持续性的地区也占到了64％，这对于我国实现2020年碳排放强度比2005年降低20％—40％的目标，是非常有利的。但是，排放总龟增长趋势的持久性普遍大于排放强度降低趋势的持久性，再加上我国仍有部分省区的碳排放降低趋势的持续性较弱，甚至有些省区的强度降低趋势出现了反持续性，这说明碳减排压力较大，特别是实现碳排放与经济发展脱钩的目标，还需要较长一段时间，这主要是由于我国正处于快速工业化和城市化的发展阶段所决定的。
The paper calculated the Hurst index and fractal dimension for evolution of total CO2 emissions and emission intensity of the 30 provinces in China's Mainland during 1990-2008 by adopting R/S method. Then the evolutionary characteristic of total emission and emission intensity of CO2 at provincial level was analyzed. The paper classified four types of regions based on the spatial distribution pattern of Hurst index, and compared the variances of evolutionary characters for total emission and emission intensity among them. The result shows that 75.86% of the provinces in China's Mainland have the strong sustainable increasing trend in the evolution of total CO2 emission, and for the evolution of CO2 emission intensity, 64% of the provinces have the strong sustainable decreasing trend. The sustainable decreasing trend of emission intensity in majority region is good news for the accomplishment of the target of cutting CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 20-25% from 2005 levels by 2020. However, for the most of provinces, the durability of increasing of total emission is higher than the emission intensity decreasing; in addition, there still are some regions which have the weaker decreasing trend in evolution of emission intensity, even the trend of emission intensity decreasing in some regions showed anti-sustainability. All of these indicated that it is still difficult for China to cut CO2 emission further, especially to fulfill the target of decoupling the CO2 emission from economic growth cutting because China＇ s economic development is still at the stage of high speed of industrialization and urbanization.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第8期20-25,共6页
Economic Geography
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20120211120026)
兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(lzujbky-2013132)
国家自然科学青年基金项目(41101126)
关键词
碳排放总量
碳排放强度
演变趋势
HURST指数
空间差异
total CO2 emissions
COs emission intensity
evolutionary trend
Hurst index
spatial differentiation
