摘要
随着全球气候变暖,北冰洋冰层开始逐渐消融,北极航线的开通成为可能。但北极航线通航环境复杂,基础设施不完善,航行经验不足,船舶技术受限,至今仍无法通航。本文对北极航线通航环境影响因素做出定义,以此为基础,结合德尔菲法建立指标体系,随后运用解释结构模型(ISM)分析其各因素之间的层次因果关系框架并去噪简化,对北极航线通航环境进行影响因素重要性分析,最后提出针对性的对策和建议,可为我国在北极航线战略的制定提供参考。
With global wanning, the arctic ice gradually melt and the opening of Arctic routes which is particularly important because of its irreplaceable political strategic posi-tion and direct world economic interests become possible. But the Arctic route is still not available with complex environment, short of infrastructure and sailing experience, as well as limited shipping technology. This research defined the Arctic route navigation en-vironment Factors, set up an index system based on this definition and Delphi method, used explain structure model （ISM） to analyze the relation framework between factors, sim-plified it, analyzed the importance of the factors, and finally provided specific counter-measures and suggestions, hoping to provide references for later Arctic route strategy of Our country.
出处
《世界地理研究》
CSSCI
2013年第2期11-17,共7页
World Regional Studies
基金
国家社科基金项目(08BGJ007)
国家自然科学基金项目(61174166)
关键词
北极航线
通航环境
影响因素
Arctic routes
navigation environment
influencing factors
