摘要
本文建立了一个包含动态通胀目标的货币政策DSGE模型,运用脉冲响应、方差分解、历史分解和反事实仿真方法研究了生产率冲击、消费需求冲击、通胀目标冲击、货币供给冲击对中国经济波动的影响。研究表明,DSGE模型对于分析中国的宏观经济和货币政策具有一定的适用性,中国的货币供应机制中存在不可观察动态内生通胀目标,并且动态通胀目标对生产率冲击做出正向响应的同时,对消费需求冲击做出负向响应;反事实仿真分析表明,具有动态通胀目标的货币供应机制能够起到稳定通货膨胀的作用。
This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model to analyze monetary policy and China＇s business cycle. A dynamic inflation target is introduced to investigate how productivity shock, consumer＇s demand shock, inflation target shock and money supply shock influence China＇s economic fluctuations. The empirical evidence reveals that DSGE framework is suitable for the analysis of China＇s macroeconomic problems. It supports the assumption that China＇s monetary policy has a dynamic endogenous inflation target. The inflation target responds positively to the productivity shock and negatively to the consumer＇s demand shock. Furthermore, counterfactual simulation shows that the money supply mechanism with dynamic inflation target could stabilize inflation volatility.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期30-42,共13页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171090)
关键词
动态通胀目标
货币供应机制
经济波动
dynamic inflation target
economic fluctuation
money supply mechanism
