摘要
中国财政支出具有生产性且偏向投资建设性支出,本文采用SVAR方法得到财政支出与财政支出结构偏向影响就业的经验事实:政府生产性支出增加能够促进就业,但是促进就业的有效性依赖于财政支出结构偏向,表现在增加政府投资性支出可以刺激就业,而增加服务性支出则抑制就业。基于政府生产性支出的新凯恩斯主义模型,可以较好地解释上述事实,政府支出影响就业的程度依赖于政府支出生产性的大小和财政支出结构偏向。中国财政政策的传导机制分析表明,政府投资性支出通过生产性效应、投资流动性约束和价格粘性等渠道刺激就业;然而,中国正处于工业化进程和体制转轨阶段,增加政府服务性支出将导致结构性劳动替代,从而抑制就业;税收则主要通过财富效应和流动性约束效应影响劳动者的工作意愿,实际就业水平的提高还需依赖企业用工需求的增加。
China’s government spending is productive and exhibits strong bias to construction and productive investment, the paper adopts the SVAR method to obtain empirical facts of fiscal policy dynamic effects on employment. It reveals that expansionary government productive spending can promote employment, but its effectiveness depends on specific expenditure structure bias, namely, government investment spending stimulates employment, but government service spending tends to reduce employment. The paper sets up a dynamic Neo-Keynesian model with productive government capital, which matches the facts well, and shows that government spending effects on employment is affected by the productivity size and its expenditure structure bias. The transmission mechanism analysis of fiscal policy suggests that government investment spending increases employment through its productivity, investment liquidity constraints and price stickiness. However, at the stage of China’s industrialization and transmission economy, more government service spending will reduce employment by its structural labor substitution. Meanwhile, taxes affect laborer’s job search effort through the wealth effect and the liquidity constraint effect, hence the real raise of employment rate depends on labor demand’s increase.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第S2期5-17,共13页
Economic Research Journal
基金
上海财经大学优秀博士学位论文培育基金
国家社会科学基金(08BJY143)
上海财经大学211工程4期的资助
关键词
财政政策
就业
政府生产性支出
支出结构偏向
Fiscal Policy
Employment
Government Productive Spending
Expenditure Structure Bias
