摘要
The extreme summer precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 was simulated using the LASG/IAP regional climate model CREM(the Climate version of a Regional Eta-coordinate Model).The results show that the probability density functions(PDFs) of precipitation intensities are reasonably simulated,except that the PDFs of light and moderate rain are underestimated and that the PDFs of heavy rain are overestimated.The extreme precipitation amount(R95p) and the percent contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation(R95pt) are also reasonably reproduced by the CREM.However,the R95p and R95pt over most of East China are generally overestimated,while the R95p along the coastal area of South China(SC) is underestimated.The bias of R95pt is consistent with the bias of precipitation intensity on wet days(SDII).The interannual variation for R95p anomalies(PC1) is well simulated,but that of R95pt anomalies(PC2) is poorly simulated.The skill of the model in simulating PC1(PC2) increases(decreases) from north to south.The bias of water vapor transport associated with the 95th percentile of summer daily precipitation(WVTr95) explains well the bias of the simulated extreme precipitation.
The extreme summer precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 was simulated using the LASG/IAP regional climate model CREM （the Climate version of a Regional Eta-coordinate Model）. The results show that the probability density functions （PDFs） of precipitation intensities are reasonably simulated, except that the PDFs of light and moderate rain are underestimated and that the PDFs of heavy rain are overestimated. The extreme precipitation amount （R95p） and the percent contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation （R95pt） are also reasonably reproduced by the CREM. However, the R95p and R95pt over most of East China are generally overestimated, while the R95p along the coastal area of South China （SC） is underestimated. The bias of R95pt is consistent with the bias of precipitation intensity on wet days （SDII）. The interannual variation for R95p anomalies （PC1） is well simulated, but that of R95pt anomalies （PC2） is poorly simulated. The skill of the model in simulating PC1 （PC2） increases （decreases） from north to south. The bias of water vapor transport associated with the 95th percentile of summer daily precipitation （WVTr95） explains well the bias of the simulated extreme precipitation.
基金
supported by the China-UK-Swiss Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)- Climate Science
the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean (Grant No. 201105019-3)
the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-04)
