摘要
利用天峻县1961-2015年逐日降水量资料,分别对夏半年和冬半年日降水量超过百分位数阈值(95%)的极端降水变化情况进行了分析。结果表明,天峻县近55年全年和夏半年降水量增加趋势明显,冬半年变化趋势不明显,而全年、夏半年和冬半年降水日数变化趋势均不明显;夏半年极端降水量和降水日数增加趋势明显,冬半年极端降水量和降水日数变化趋势均不明显;极端降水量在1992年发生突变,而极端降水日数突变发生在1968年;未来极端降水量和降水日数变化情况与过去55年的变化趋势相同,短时期内不会发生逆转。
Using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 of Tianjun County, respectively in summer half year and winter half year, precipitation over percentile threshold （95 % ） of extreme precipitation change were analyzed. The results show that the Tianjun county nearly 55 years throughout the year and summer half year precipitation increased obviously, winter half year change trend is not obvious, but all the year round, summer half year and winter half year precipitation days change trend is not obvious ; Summer half year of extreme precipitation and precipitation days increased obviously, the winter half year of extreme precipitation and precipitation days change trend is not obvious;Extreme precipitation in 1992 mutations, and extreme precipitation days mutation occurred in 1968;The future changes of extreme precipitation and precipitation days and the change trend of the past 55 years, same in the short term will not reversed.
出处
《青海农林科技》
2016年第4期52-55,82,共5页
Science and Technology of Qinghai Agriculture and Forestry
关键词
极端降水
气候倾向率
突变
天峻地区
Extreme precipitation
Climate tendency rate
Mutation
Tianjun
