摘要
通过分析C2C商家的交易记录,发现单个商家的顾客重复购买次数呈幂律分布,这与重复购买理论以往得到的购买次数为负二项分布的结论不同.基于C2C交易的实际情况,建立了具有购买强化效应的购买概率模型,模型很好的解释了顾客重复购买率呈幂律分布的现象.实证和模型表明,C2C环境中,顾客购买次数的分布具有很长的尾部,大量顾客有低的购买次数,而少数顾客有很高的重复购买次数;模型还揭示了巨大的潜在顾客数量和顾客多次购买的强化效应是造成重复购买分布呈幂律形式的重要原因.
By analyzing the C2C sales records, we find the repeat purchase frequency of customers is powerlaw distribution, which is different from the result of existing repeat purchase research that the purchase frequency is negative binomial distribution. Based on actual situation in C2C transactions, a repeat purchase model with buying reinforcement is built, which explaned to the phenomenon of the power-law distribution. Our model and empirical analysis show that, in C2C environment, the distribution of customers＇ repeat pur- chase frequency is composed of a long tail and short head, meaning that a large number of customers have a low number of purchases, while a few customers have a high repeat purchase frequency. Our model also reveals that the huge number of potential customers and the repeat purchase with buying reinforcement contributes to the power law distribution characteristics of repeat purchase frequency.
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第12期71-78,共8页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70801050)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年资助项目(07JC630018)
西南财经大学"211工程"3期资助项目
关键词
重复购买行为
幂律分布
电子商务
购物行为
二项分布模型
repeat purchase behavior
power law distribution
ecommerce
shopping behavior
negative binomial distribution
